UFL Week 1 - Predictions (w/l, viewers, attendance)

[4th&long]

Saturday, March 30
Birmingham Stallions at Arlington Renegades    1 p.m. (Fox) - BIRM, 1,200k, 12,500
St. Louis Battlehawks at Michigan Panthers    4 p.m. (Fox) - MICH, 1,200k, 8,300 ( slowest roll out for tix sales by far costs Mich)

Sunday, March 31   
D.C. Defenders at San Antonio Brahmas    12 p.m. (ESPN)  - DC, 1,000k , 18,500
Memphis Showboats at Houston Roughnecks    3 p.m. (ESPN)  - MEM, 600k  11,500

I'm going to update viewership numbers once we get the NCAA schedule.  Weather does not look favorable for indoor viewing.

Games for ESPN will also be in ESPN App and ESPN+, Fox games also on Fox Sports App.  I'm hoping the ESPN games will have replays on ESPN App as Easter Sunday is going to be tough for me.

EDIT 3/28: Looks like 6:10pm start for Saturday games and 2:20pm Start for Sunday games - viewership numbers updated.  Hopefully not pie-in-sky and hopefully ESPN gets an Easter bump.

Also Draft Kings has game odds Birm -3.5, BH -6.5 for Saturday games

[MGB01]

The Sat games are early evening (second half of STL/MI) on TBS, actually good scheduling here by the league. Two things, one they'll have a two-hour headstart--plus the audience that's sticking around for MLB afterwards; and two it's no secret NCAA ratings have taken a dip right around the time that they split the E8 and F4 with Turner. And if TBS should get Arizona/UNC it will almost assuredly be the late game (after UFL).

Sunday the overlap starts about the second half of DC/SA. CBS will win the day but the object is to take as many viewers as possible (the same way that the Monday Night Wars "beat" MNF back in the late 90s), and depends on the matchup. Gonzaga/Creighton, which is totally possible as Gonzaga is totally different than when Purdue beat them in Maui and Tennessee's known for gag-jobs in the Sweet 16, probably isn't moving the needle much the same way SDSU/Creighton wasn't last year and actually ceded viewers to the XFL and the PGA (though much moreso the latter--since Brahmas/Renegades didn't have much more to offer than Lujuan Winningham's catch).

The final numbers may tell if the league stays with the Easter open next year (Apr 19-20), which as I said a few days ago would be what I'd guess in the order of likelihood.

[laxtreme56]

Woohoo my favorite time of the year.

Arlington - Birmingham: winner - Birmingham. Attendance - 14250  viewership 1.2 million

St. Louis - Michigan: winner- St Louis. Attendance - 9250. Viewership - 1.3 million.

San Antonio - DC.: winner- DC. Attendance - 17,750. Viewership - 910k

Houston - Memphis: winner- Houston. Attendance - 11,111. Viewership - 775k.

[4th&long]

https://athlonsports.com/nation/ufl/new ... redictions

>> Just days before the UFL opener, interest is building in the bubble of fans who follow these leagues religiously. However, the lack of buzz from mainstream and casual sports fans attached to spring pro football has carried over as well. That may change in the coming days — and after the end of March Madness — but at the moment, it's challenging to envision a scenario where the new USFL-XFL merger translates to enhanced interest.

Therefore, my projections for the United Football League's Week One viewership will be tame. The league must find a way to score a moral victory and find its footing — a familiar sentiment and theme in the last couple of years.

UFL Week One TV Ratings Projections
Saturday, March 30

• Birmingham Stallions at Arlington Renegades, 1 p.m. (FOX): 850k viewers
• St. Louis Battlehawks at Michigan Panthers, 4 p.m. (FOX): 887k viewers

Sunday, March 31

• D.C. Defenders at San Antonio Brahmas, noon (ESPN): 450k viewers
• Memphis Showboats at Houston Roughnecks, 3 p.m. (ESPN): 420k viewers

<<


MM taking a cautious approach with CBB in week 1.

 

[laxtreme56]

I think Mitchell is a tad low on the cable ratings. I still think St Louis cracks a million on Fox but wouldn't be surprised if the early game comes under that mark. 

Something of interest I discovered. Look at the XFL Google trends from 2020 compared to 2023. 2023 has about 1/3 the searches opening weekend compared to 2020. Coincidentally, the overall average of last year's ratings were roughly 1/3 compared to the 5 week abbreviated 2020 season (1.9 million vs. 640k). I'm interested in seeing how UFL opening weekend trends compared to both leagues last season.

[4th&long]

I think Mitchell is a tad low on the cable ratings. I still think St Louis cracks a million on Fox but wouldn't be surprised if the early game comes under that mark. 

Something of interest I discovered. Look at the XFL Google trends from 2020 compared to 2023. 2023 has about 1/3 the searches opening weekend compared to 2020. Coincidentally, the overall average of last year's ratings were roughly 1/3 compared to the 5 week abbreviated 2020 season (1.9 million vs. 640k). I'm interested in seeing how UFL opening weekend trends compared to both leagues last season.

 

This is good data/info - Nice find LAextreme. 

Recall that XFL2020 was in markets representing 22% of the country - vs 12.4% for XFL2023.  That matters and UFL is only 11.3%
Not being in NYC or LA is big diff.

Also McMahon spent more money and ESPN/FOX were getting the product for free and were making coin until covid.

Plus VM was a master promoter.

Both leagues would have had better ratings last year if there was only one league, hopefully we see 750k to 870k viewership like USFL 2022.

The issue with UFL opening weekend this year is its opening during March Madness, thats a tough hill to climb.   On the positive side Easter weekend worked well for USFL in 2022.  Hoping for the best.

[MGB01]

The USFL debut/return also drew three million viewers against the opening night of the NBA playoffs in 2022. Granted they didn't come anywhere near sustaining it, but it's definitely not a case of the end being nigh especially with the bulk of STL/MI being done by the time the Elite Eight tips off (and as I said last night, if Arizona/UNC ends up as the West final, it probably won't be the first game)

[4th&long]

The USFL debut/return also drew three million viewers against the opening night of the NBA playoffs in 2022. Granted they didn't come anywhere near sustaining it, but it's definitely not a case of the end being nigh especially with the bulk of STL/MI being done by the time the Elite Eight tips off (and as I said last night, if Arizona/UNC ends up as the West final, it probably won't be the first game)
 

The 3mm from 2022 is true - however that was a primetime game.  It was also simulcast on two large broadcast networks, Fox (1.75mm) and NBC (1.3mm). 

What was more encouraging to me was the 2.25 million viewers on NBC for the 50min rain delayed noon MIch game the next day on Easter Sunday,

So we'll have to see.  I'm sticking with the 1.2mm each in the 3/30 Saturday games and 1mm ESPN early Sunday game, I lowered late ESPN game to 600k... hopefully they get it or close.   No change to my full yr forecat so that drop will need to be made up.

[4th&long]

Be BOLD!

Make your predictions for week one!
 

[Coffeeeyes]

Attendance estimates:

Arlington v Birmingham. 15k at Choctaw. This is really good for the Renegades but post championship is possible.

Battlehawks v Panthers. 8k at Ford Field. I don’t know when and how the UFL expects Michigan to be a profitable franchise that’s gonna touch that huge stadium capacity but good luck paying rent and sinking money into that abysmal attendance.

 Brahmas v Defenders. 22k. Brahmas getting a lot of press in San Antonio, huge marketing push, large fair weather fanbase that is getting a fresh slate. They can touch 30k imo if they prove themselves one of the best franchises in the league but good starting time and San Antonio weather I think this is gonna be a good prediction. 

Roughnecks v Showboats. 13k. This is one of the hardest ones to predict cause I believe Houston is a team with one of the highest ceilings for attendance but this is definitely not one of those times, especially right here.