XFL meets ESPN expectations

XFL Football discussion.
laxtreme56
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XFL meets ESPN expectations

Post by laxtreme56 »

Really interesting article from The Atlantic. Sections bolded for emphasis.
https://theathletic.com/4525161/2023/05 ... v-ratings/

It took three tries over 22 years, but the XFL completed its second full season.
And it’ll officially be back for another in 2024.

The developmental spring pro football league, which originated with WWE boss Vince McMahon disastrously in 2001 and then as a less-flamboyant but incomplete 2020 reboot, wrapped up its 2023 season with a championship game that aired Saturday on ABC. Per data released today, the championship game averaged 1.43 million viewers who watched the Bob Stoops-led Arlington Renegades, who were just 4-6 in the regular season, beat the 9-1 D.C. Defenders, 35-26, on Saturday at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

That was the league’s best TV audience total since the opening weekend when a pair of games on ABC averaged 1.5 million and 1.6 million viewers. The title game, which kicked off at 8 p.m. on ABC and ESPN Deportes, peaked at 1.8 million viewers from 11 to 11:15 p.m.

“It performed within our expectations,” said Tim Reed, ESPN’s vice president of programming and acquisitions. “We ended on a high note.”


The 2023 XFL season started the week after the Super Bowl in February and continued as the USFL in April began its second season on Fox and NBC channels — presenting a rival for both fan eyeballs and corporate advertising dollars.

The question of whether there’s enough audience and money for two spring football leagues remains far from answered.

The XFL’s 10-game regular season averaged 622,000 viewers per game on ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, FX, ESPN+ and ESPN Deportes. The eight ABC games averaged 1.13 million viewers.

The 2020 version of the XFL, which had more games on broadcast than cable compared to the current version of the league, started with 3 million viewers for its opening weekend and then averaged 1.87 million viewers per game for its mix of broadcast and cable games before the pandemic ended its season at the midway point.

The 2020 XFL never had to face March Madness competition, which this year siphoned some viewership from the 2023 version of the league. McMahon put his XFL into bankruptcy in 2020, and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and his business partners bought it for $15 million with plans to relaunch it this year.

The television landscape from the 2020 XFL to the 2023 XFL was one of rapid change, and that forced audience expectation adjustment. “That was still a pretty significant time ago,” Reed said.

Hence, the network’s position is that reduced viewership compared to the last version of the XFL is within expectations. The league and network success metrics, for either the XFL or USFL, have never been disclosed, so it’s unknown how they’re being measured internally — but the plug hasn’t been pulled.

The XFL and USFL (which is owned by Fox) exist, from a network perspective, to fill springtime programming lineups with what the networks view as a relatively low-cost way to populate their platforms, gain audience, provide a new ad and marketing platforms, and develop broadcast and production talent. Until something comes along that attracts the same viewership at a cheaper cost, the spring football leagues will chug along. Americans love football, the thinking goes, so there have been many expensive (and all failed) efforts at spring football for decades.

And the games certainly have a bit more flair than NFL broadcasts and present a decent inexpensive game experience for attendees.

The XFL offseason will be spent analyzing what went right and wrong in 2023, Reed said, and planning for next season will focus on schedule optimization and how games are marketed to maximize viewership. Finally having a full season of data should help, he added.

“With a full season under our belts, I think it’s going to be a benefit to us,” Reed said.


He cited the improved quality of play, the unique rules, the real-time officiating audio and video, and overall production quality as the chief positive takeaways from 2023 that will be used as the building blocks for 2024.

There’s no word yet on any expansion of the eight-team league, nor news on branding changes, relocation, etc.

How XFL games are scheduled — when, on which channel, and with what lead-in programming — are expected to be discussion points for next season, Reed said.

“There are ways to optimize and improve that going forward,” he said.

In the meantime, what do we think of the championship game’s audience number?

It’s an important question to ponder because the tentpoles for a new league’s season are the opening weekend — the curiosity factor drives big viewership, then the leagues and networks try to retain as many of those eyeballs as possible — and its championship game, which gets plenty of marketing hype.

It’s foolish to compare the XFL to the NFL because no one is trying to compete with football’s $18 billion TV behemoth that averaged 16.7 million viewers per regular-season game in 2022-23 and has more than $115 billion in long-term media rights deals.

It’s more instructive, perhaps, to contrast it with the USFL, which is a similar product in terms of production, rules, network partnerships, quality of play, etc., and they both exist as lower-tier properties trying to find long-term loyal audiences and advertising partners. Both also are seeing players invited to NFL training camps and getting signed to contracts — a positive sign.

Last year’s USFL championship on Fox averaged 1.52 million, which was about half the audience of a 2022 Week 1 simulcast of a USFL game on Fox and NBC. Its regular season last year averaged 715,000 viewers across broadcast and cable.

The USFL’s Week 5 didn’t compete head to head on Saturday night with the XFL championship game broadcast, but it still recorded 914,000 viewers for a 4 p.m. kickoff that day on Fox. It also had a paltry 256,000 viewers for a 12:30 p.m. kickoff on USA Network — an illustration of the power of broadcast versus cable during a busy sports weekend.

Older alternative football leagues existed in very different eras of television, when there were fewer options for viewers as cable and the internet grew up. Some of those leagues, such as the 1983-85 USFL, attempted to compete directly with the NFL for talent and immolated themselves financially.

Non-NFL football historical television data is, at best, messy the further you go back in time.

The 2001 XFL enjoyed big initial viewership on NBC, but the league’s almost cartoonish over-the-top excesses and mediocre play were soon met by public and media scorn. Viewership plummeted.

The championship game in 2001 averaged a 2.5 rating nationally for NBC, which was a far cry from its season-opening 9.5 rating on the network. A ratings point at the time was equal to 1.02 million TV households, and a rating is a percentage expression of the number of TVs turned to a particular program.

Going back a bit further, the inaugural USFL title game in July 1983 averaged an 11.9 national rating on ABC, led by the Detroit market with a 39.1 rating and 63 share — numbers you’d see for a Super Bowl in a local market, and was akin to just that for Detroit because the Michigan Panthers won that first USFL championship at Denver’s Mile High Stadium in a great game that ended with cops and fans brawling on the field.

Interestingly, the new Michigan Panthers of the current USFL enjoyed an audience of more than 2 million for a game that immediately followed the Kentucky Derby on May 6. That’s the biggest audience in either spring league since the 2022 USFL opener simulcast and an example of why the XFL and ESPN plan to seek out potential lead-ins to draft off of in 2024.

The other recent spring football league was the 2019 Alliance of American Football, which shut down during the season because of cascading self-inflicted financial disasters. It opened with nearly 4 million viewers, but when it shuttered in Week 8, it was averaging about 700,000 viewers across CBS, NFL Network and TNT (games on CBS Sports Network are not publicly Nielsen rated, so the true averages aren’t really known).

Various other leagues — like the NFL’s own World League of American Football (which later became NFL Europe), the World Football League of 1974-75, and the United Football League of 2009-11 — all suffered from poor ratings and failed for the usual reason — money.

Fox has earmarked a reported $150 million over three years to finance USFL operations while ESPN/ABC have pledged $100 million to $150 million for five years of XFL funding, according to Sportico. The leagues also sell tickets, premium seating, concessions, merchandise and corporate sponsorships to raise revenue.

In-game TV advertising spending estimates show the XFL lagging behind the USFL. Projections from Kantar Media via TV insights and analytics firm EDO show that the XFL’s completed regular season generated $20.6 million in ad spending by brands during games while three weeks of USFL ad data for its still-underway 2023 season are at $12.4 million (and projects out to about $41.3 million for the 10-game regular season).

The leagues and networks themselves don’t discuss their finances.

In the playoffs — both eight-team leagues play two semifinal games before a championship game — the XFL channels were estimated to get $1.3 million in ad revenue while Fox and NBC’s 2022 USFL postseason broadcasts got $6.7 million in ad spending. One 30-second ad during the last Super Bowl averaged $7 million for Fox.

It’s not known how the networks are bundling their spring football game advertising inventory with other programming, which can be a significant success metric.

“That goes a long way in how media dollars get allocated in live sports. Often it’s the case, if you want the top thing, you have to spend elsewhere,” said Kevin Krim, EDO’s CEO and president.

What the ad buying estimates generally suggest, if accurate, is that Fox’s USFL is better positioned financially than the XFL — which does have deep-pocket backers such as RedBird Capital, who haven’t said how much they’re willing to subsidize the league and for how long.


“As a football fan, it’s always been a quandary if these alternative football leagues can work it out,” said Krim, whose company measures the effectiveness of online search rates for brands after commercials air during programming. “Both are well above prime-time entertainment. These leagues, as TV/sports properties, are performing as you’d expect for live sports.”

The leagues could grow audience and improve advertising rates if they can develop household-name players — not easy as a minor league — and reduce overlapping schedules, he said.

“To really break through, they need to develop some stars and make sure people realize there is great competition,” Krim said. “When you’ve got two sports that are very similar overlapping in time, you’ll see a lot of competition for audience. Ideally, they’d find a way to change their seasons to have non-overlapping schedules.”

Ad dollars will be a major factor in whether these leagues survive long, but it’s premature to predict if one or both survive or join the packed graveyard of spring football leagues, he said.

“I think it’s too early to say,” Krim said. “The United States is a football country. I think there is enough room for both these leagues to succeed.”
laxtreme56
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Re: XFL meets ESPN expectations

Post by laxtreme56 »

Some takeaways from me.

*An audience exists for spring football, but just how big is it.
*USFL netted significantly more ad revenue than XFL. Not unexpected as Fox has bundled USFL rates with its other properties, in particular the Super Bowl 2022.
*USFL is on pace for $15-20M less ad revenue than last year ($65M in 2022, Approximately $45M estimated at current rates). This may be part of the reason why they went to 4 hubs this year.
*TV will not pay all the bills for spring football. Both leagues will still need to rely on ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, and local sponsors.
*Avoiding head to head competition would be best. There's only so many folks willing to watch spring football.

In conclusion, I think both leagues will roll along in 2024 with minor adjustments to scheduling and programming. However, if either or both leagues see a reduction in revenue next season, I'd expect said parties to start having some closed door conversations on consolidating/partnering/merging by 2025.
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Re: XFL meets ESPN expectations

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laxtreme56 wrote: Tue May 16, 2023 8:04 pm Some takeaways from me.

*An audience exists for spring football, but just how big is it.
*USFL netted significantly more ad revenue than XFL. Not unexpected as Fox has bundled USFL rates with its other properties, in particular the Super Bowl 2022.
*USFL is on pace for $15-20M less ad revenue than last year ($65M in 2022, Approximately $45M estimated at current rates). This may be part of the reason why they went to 4 hubs this year.
*TV will not pay all the bills for spring football. Both leagues will still need to rely on ticket sales, concessions, merchandise, and local sponsors.
*Avoiding head to head competition would be best. There's only so many folks willing to watch spring football.

In conclusion, I think both leagues will roll along in 2024 with minor adjustments to scheduling and programming. However, if either or both leagues see a reduction in revenue next season, I'd expect said parties to start having some closed door conversations on consolidating/partnering/merging by 2025.
I find it completely odd that the article ignores its own reporting from 2022 (7/6/22) and never mentions the drop in USFL revenue ($65mm in 2022 -PRIOR to the championship. This despite TV ratings in line with 2022 for both 2023 XFL and USFL 2023.

Are these estimates correct? Even the author admits its an assumption
>> What the ad buying estimates generally suggest, if accurate, is that Fox’s USFL is better positioned financially than the XFL — which does have deep-pocket backers such as RedBird Capital, who haven’t said how much they’re willing to subsidize the league and for how long.<<

Also the XFL with $21mm in 40 games is averaging just $500k in ads for 45 minutes of commercials per game? That's about $5,500 per 30 second spot. Is that accurate?

I do think the leagues will be talking, I've said they may start talking after the XFL championship, reading this article I believe so even more now.
Last edited by 4th&long on Wed May 17, 2023 9:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: XFL meets ESPN expectations

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I think at the very least the two leagues need to talk about how to not step on each others toes. The two leagues are almost, almost, capable of not overlapping at all. And the weeks they do, try to schedule their games to not conflict. How the XFL Championship Game worked with the two lead-ins and then had Saturday night by itself is a perfect example of how things should work going forward.

I personally would like to see the XFL start two weeks earlier, but I doubt that's happening. USFL wants to be done by the 4th of July. XFL wants to start AFTER the Super Bowl.

Though, playing, say, a tripleheader on Saturday before the Super Bowl and a single afternoon game at noon on Super Bowl Sunday could be a huge boon for the XFL. But I doubt the networks that pay out the wahoo for the NFL are going to want to battle with another network by putting a game on opposite the ridiculous, but still highly watched, Super Bowl pregame shows.
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Re: XFL meets ESPN expectations

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The XFL's schedule is going to come out first for 2024 (fingers crossed!), so it should be easy for the USFL to look at the times and schedule around them, especially if they're still in hubs. Finding a network for those times shouldn't be a problem with at least four channel options (NBC, USA, FOX, FS1). They only overlap for three weeks of their regular seasons; I really think too much is being made about how they're destroying each others' audiences.

The advertising $$ thing is really perplexing to me. I get laextreme56's point about Fox bundling the ads in relation to the Super Bowl, but drawing advertising dollars more than three times the amount of the XFL in year one, and even doubling it in year two is odd to me. Would that bundling account for that discrepencey in BOTH years?

For year two I would think having more games on network TV as the USFL is having would actually increase how much money you'd be able to get from ads. I would also think having a baseline set in year one for the viewership numbers advertising would expect would also help to increase those ad dollars. Moral of the story: I guess I don't know much about how this side of the business works.
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Re: XFL meets ESPN expectations

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GregParks wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 9:08 am The XFL's schedule is going to come out first for 2024 (fingers crossed!), so it should be easy for the USFL to look at the times and schedule around them, especially if they're still in hubs. Finding a network for those times shouldn't be a problem with at least four channel options (NBC, USA, FOX, FS1). They only overlap for three weeks of their regular seasons; I really think too much is being made about how they're destroying each others' audiences.

The advertising $$ thing is really perplexing to me. I get laextreme56's point about Fox bundling the ads in relation to the Super Bowl, but drawing advertising dollars more than three times the amount of the XFL in year one, and even doubling it in year two is odd to me. Would that bundling account for that discrepencey in BOTH years?

For year two I would think having more games on network TV as the USFL is having would actually increase how much money you'd be able to get from ads. I would also think having a baseline set in year one for the viewership numbers advertising would expect would also help to increase those ad dollars. Moral of the story: I guess I don't know much about how this side of the business works.
The ad rates also fall in line with network vs non-network games. XFL had 7 games on ABC, the USFL has around 25 I believe between Fox and NBC. Ads cost more on network as opposed to cable. On cable, ad spots are more on ESPN, vs ESPN2 and FX. Also, there's a finite amount of advertisers willing to pay for spring football. Last year the USFL received all of the $65M. This years figures collectively should fall within 5% of that number, except the XFL siphoned some of that revenue. The rising tide lifts all ships has not necessarily been the case in this first head 2 head season
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Re: XFL meets ESPN expectations

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laxtreme56 wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 10:09 am
GregParks wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 9:08 am The XFL's schedule is going to come out first for 2024 (fingers crossed!), so it should be easy for the USFL to look at the times and schedule around them, especially if they're still in hubs. Finding a network for those times shouldn't be a problem with at least four channel options (NBC, USA, FOX, FS1). They only overlap for three weeks of their regular seasons; I really think too much is being made about how they're destroying each others' audiences.

The advertising $$ thing is really perplexing to me. I get laextreme56's point about Fox bundling the ads in relation to the Super Bowl, but drawing advertising dollars more than three times the amount of the XFL in year one, and even doubling it in year two is odd to me. Would that bundling account for that discrepencey in BOTH years?

For year two I would think having more games on network TV as the USFL is having would actually increase how much money you'd be able to get from ads. I would also think having a baseline set in year one for the viewership numbers advertising would expect would also help to increase those ad dollars. Moral of the story: I guess I don't know much about how this side of the business works.
Also, there's a finite amount of advertisers willing to pay for spring football. Last year the USFL received all of the $65M. This years figures collectively should fall within 5% of that number, except the XFL siphoned some of that revenue. The rising tide lifts all ships has not necessarily been the case in this first head 2 head season
That's a good point. That makes sense.
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Re: XFL meets ESPN expectations

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laxtreme56 wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 10:09 am
GregParks wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 9:08 am The XFL's schedule is going to come out first for 2024 (fingers crossed!), so it should be easy for the USFL to look at the times and schedule around them, especially if they're still in hubs. Finding a network for those times shouldn't be a problem with at least four channel options (NBC, USA, FOX, FS1). They only overlap for three weeks of their regular seasons; I really think too much is being made about how they're destroying each others' audiences.

The advertising $$ thing is really perplexing to me. I get laextreme56's point about Fox bundling the ads in relation to the Super Bowl, but drawing advertising dollars more than three times the amount of the XFL in year one, and even doubling it in year two is odd to me. Would that bundling account for that discrepencey in BOTH years?

For year two I would think having more games on network TV as the USFL is having would actually increase how much money you'd be able to get from ads. I would also think having a baseline set in year one for the viewership numbers advertising would expect would also help to increase those ad dollars. Moral of the story: I guess I don't know much about how this side of the business works.
The ad rates also fall in line with network vs non-network games. XFL had 7 games on ABC, the USFL has around 25 I believe between Fox and NBC. Ads cost more on network as opposed to cable. On cable, ad spots are more on ESPN, vs ESPN2 and FX. Also, there's a finite amount of advertisers willing to pay for spring football. Last year the USFL received all of the $65M. This years figures collectively should fall within 5% of that number, except the XFL siphoned some of that revenue. The rising tide lifts all ships has not necessarily been the case in this first head 2 head season
Why would ad rates be higher on broadcast if the expected ratings are similar? I don't think so. Now if you say broadcast has higher ad rates because the get a bigger audience ... maybe. But That's not the case (esp on average). XFL getting 634k viewers vs USFL 669k (or 747k last year-includes simulcast as 1 game). Is all in range that revenue would be off 10-15% but that's about it. So whether the viewers are on cable or Brodcast (or streaming for that matter) if you get 650k viewers /demo that's what advertisers are paying to get.
Also saying that there's only so much $ for spring FB? If it wasn't spring FB it would be some other tv product, so I don't feel that's a valid point either. Again the viewership rules.

I will say we've heard reports that advertising in general has pull back in 2023 vs 2022.
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Re: XFL meets ESPN expectations

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Expected ratings would not be similar on broadcast vs cable. You could put a test pattern on any of the big 4 networks and just by proxy, 700k people will tune in. FX top rated show, Snowfall, nets around 450k viewers. There's more potential to reach consumers in network television, hence ad rates run higher there. If the programming is unable to hit certain benchmarks, the network must either refund the advertisers money, in part or full, or give free spots during similar programming.
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Re: XFL meets ESPN expectations

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laxtreme56 wrote: Wed May 17, 2023 1:33 pm Expected ratings would not be similar on broadcast vs cable. You could put a test pattern on any of the big 4 networks and just by proxy, 700k people will tune in. FX top rated show, Snowfall, nets around 450k viewers. There's more potential to reach consumers in network television, hence ad rates run higher there. If the programming is unable to hit certain benchmarks, the network must either refund the advertisers money, in part or full, or give free spots during similar programming.
Like I said broadcast > cable BUT the XFL expected ratings on average for both is 635K. That's what advertisers are paying to get.

SO as this is on average the expected results are 635k for XFL. Whether that's broadcast or cable (mostly cable) that's where they balance out. If the results are 635k or roughly 15% less than USFL 2022 or 10% USFL 2023 why would ad revenue be half of USFL's 2023 estimate?

For the articles $20.6mm ESTIMATED XFL regular season that's a little more than $5k a 30 sec ad assuming 90 ads per game. Yes the high viewed network games would be more than the lower rated cable games but on average that's what it is. It just seems like an overly low estimate. IMO
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