My favorite bet for week 3

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Oatmealers
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Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2023 3:16 pm

My favorite bet for week 3

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I wrote up a breakdown of St Louis Battlehawks vs DC Defenders if anyone is interested...

2-0 Defenders come home to host the 2-0 Battlehawks this Sunday after a windy, rainy victory in Vegas. DC again leaned on the run game putting up 229 on the ground. While Ta’amu continued to struggle going 11/23 on pass attempts and failing to eclipse 100 yards through the air in now both games played. Three first half turnovers for DC and two near interceptions kept them scoreless before they hit the locker room. Starting the second half is when the wind and rain really kicked up. They then put some drives together on the shoulders of back up QB Deriq King rushing for 30+ yards and 0 yards passing. If they are going to pay this style of low scoring ground and pound game they are going to need to get healthy on the O-line as they lost another starter. LT #67 was carried off this week. Going into the season I had DC power ranked T6 (with Vegas) of 8 teams, after beating Vegas (T6) and beating Seattle (who I had 3rd), on the back of what was essentially 2 pick 6’s and a fumble recovery still has me firmly believing that this offense sucks. I know you can say the weather played a role in the lack offensive firepower and that may be true, but watching Ta’amu miss open receivers and incompleting passes in the screen game is a huge concern. They are painting themselves into a corner with this one dimensional offense that is suffering injuries to the vital offensive line. They are heavily relying on their defense to keep the opposition under 20 points if they want to continue this unbeaten streak.

Another team with a two game unbeaten streak, all on the road no less, is the St Louis Battlehawks who continue their road trip to DC after a Thursday night victory in Seattle. Going into the season I had them as the #1 team in the league so seeing them struggle on offense week one vs the team I had 2nd didn’t surprise me. I think the thought in the media was that San Antonio blew the game at the end to another mediocre team in St Louis, but I didn’t see it like that at all. Seeing both squads go out and win and cover in week two was no surprise to me and my rankings. AJ McCarron showed poise in the pocket even in the face of pressure. 3 TDs and 0 picks so far this season is setting him apart from the pack as the leagues best QB. Like I mentioned before, with no preseason and against a good defense, it’s no surprise that the week one we got a slow start from McCarron. The when you consider travel time you had about 48 hours to prepare for your next opponent. No actual practices, just walk throughs and meetings. It’s actually pretty impressive that they were able to come together and pull out another come from behind win. I think given now that they actually have nine days off to practice and prepare, we are going to see some serious offense from this Battlehawks team. DC might have the homefield advantage but they themselves are coming off a defensive battle in a rainstorm across the country. I don’t know how much more offensively they can mix it up given the injuries and the lack of talent in the passing game. We are heading into week 3, I think this is a week the offenses start clicking and I think the biggest leap comes from the Battlehawks. I think DC has been able to live off their defense in two outlier game scripts and they are probably going to be exposed when they face a team that can chuck it around. High of 58 degrees, 12mph winds, and mostly sunny is the forecast for Sunday as of the time I am writing this. Shouldn’t have any issues slinging the rock on a day like that.

I think that if the Battlehawks can get into the mid 20s DC won’t be able to keep up. I think the wrong team is favored here. Getting 2 points is a gift, moneyline is very much in play here as well. I make this line Battlehawks -3. I may be way off market with 5 points of value. I am not sure how to determine value through the 0, hopefully someone can break that down for me. I have been putting an enormous amount of work into this league in the last few weeks and even with low limits I have been able to get down max bets across multiple sportsbooks. I was even able to get the 3.5 units on Houston Roughnecks at 10/1 to win the championship. They are at currently +200 (PPH metallic) to +330 at Draftkings. I think the low limits and lack of eyeballs in this market as led to lackadaisical market making and I am happily taking advantage. Small sample size obviously but I think early in the season is where the most value is to be had. Looking forward to your comments, thanks!
Just for fun, Battlehawks 24-12 DC
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