Betting Orlando vs Houston

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Oatmealers
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Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2023 3:16 pm

Betting Orlando vs Houston

Post by Oatmealers »

Not sure if anyone cares to go down the rabbit hole with me but I think there is a lot a value to be had in this space if you are willing to work for it.
The XFL is starting this weekend at the surface level there is not a lot of info on the teams. I have been digging into the teams and depth charts this week and found a line that I thought was way off. As the season starts and they prepare to play their first games I feel like prior experience and familiarity are going to be important when it comes to getting a team to play together as a unit. Two teams stuck out to me on either ends of these factors.
The Houston Roughnecks open the season at home vs the Orlando Guardians. The Roughnecks defensive is comprised of 100% NFL veterans, only team in the league to do so. Orlando of the other hand has just 13/26 NFL veteran players, lowest in the league. I think it's clear that having that much experience on that side of the ball will be a massive advantage this early in the season as teams work on continuity. They do have to face a big name (relatively speaking) QB, 2016 NFL 1st round NFL pick Paxton Lynch. The good thing for the Roughnecks is Lynch just signed with the Guardians just 2 weeks ago and who knows how much practice time he has been able to get in with his WR core. Another hurdle will be Guardians offensive line. According to Greg Parks of XFLBoard.com, "Keeping Paxton Lynch upright will be a priority, but it’s difficult to find one or two, let alone five, starters out of the group they have now." he has their O-line as the worst in the league ranking wise. The bright spot on the Orlando team is their weapons at WR. But a new QB behind a bad o-line... if there is one thing that can be most easily nullified it will be the passing game. Now they pack up their offense on the road week one.
On the other side of the ball, what the Roughnecks lack in high level experience they make up for in familiarity. QB Cole McDonald drafted in the 7th round played his college career in Hawaii were he played along side Roughnecks WR Cedric Byrd. In 2019 Byrd caught 10 of McDonald's 33 TD's on the season, and 9 of his 36 TD's in 2018. Having a safety valve that McDonald is so familiar with is going to be massive against the worst (on paper) CB core in the league. Obviously there is A LOT of unknowns when a league pops up out of nowhere (again) and it's every teams first game together.
This game opened up as a pick em. I already max bet it at that price on BetUS. Today it came up at my local sportsbook and was able to bet the side. They didn't let me take the spread, which is now moved to -2.5. I think the ML price of -135 has value... and considering the Orlando Guardians are the only team in the league to not have a long snapper on the roster (they are using one of their tight ends to play that role) I think the -2.5 line is still a good number if the Guardians find themselves behind by a FG, it might not be as easy as it should to put 3 points on the board. Good luck and looking forward to getting in touch with someone as crazy as me when it comes to the XFL.
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