XFL potential look for 3.0

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4th&long
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XFL potential look for 3.0

Post by 4th&long »

With XFL teasing an announcement on Manningcast 2 weeks ago on ESPN2 and it later posted as a news item on NFL.com what can we guess is happening with XFL 3.0. Rock said an announcement in 2/3 weeks, which is closing in fast.

We've seen teases with NFL from DG and now NFL with XFL. Could there be a TV deal with NFLN in the works? What about ESPN? What impact, if any will that and the new USFL have on city choices?

NFLN is in desperate need of original programing - other than constant NFL talk.... especially after the superbowl. The other big offseason event is the Draft, followed by camp coverage and preseason.
ESPN is loaded with content having NBA, CBB, MLB and adding NHL. So would they be interested as much?
I'm seeing ESPN as possibly a mix of mostly ESPN+ with some ESPN/ESPN2 also. Could WM and CBS get in the mix? Yes but unlikely as WM has NBA/NHL and CBS has CBB, but CBS also has Paramount+ to fill.
I do not see these as combined as a big contract, but hopefully at least net-net zero or plus $.

Now as far a cities... Depending on how much influence NFL has I could see a shift out of major TV/NFL markets sans a couple. I'm going with an NFL influence that has at least some weight to it.

With that and the pending USFL... I can see some major shifts to the largest Non-NFL FB hungry cities.

TB > Orlando
Houston > SA
LA > SD
Seattle > Portland
That's 5 non-NFL cities (St Louis is a give-me) with Dallas, DC and NY as large enough or needed for ratings while satiating FB fans in non-FB markets. That gives the league plenty of TV audience left roughly 16% of the TV houshoelds like USFL - and a more western-half of country look than USFL.

That leaves Dallas, NY and DC standing. But even Dallas and DC could move to Austin and VA Beach or Richmond OR even Raleigh-Durham or Columbus. I see NY standing for TV audiences.

Its all speculation at this point but that's my educated guess.
laxtreme56
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Re: XFL potential look for 3.0

Post by laxtreme56 »

I agree with you here for the most part. If I had to guess I'd say 2 games on NFL Network, one game on ESPN/ESPN and one on ABC. This is of course assuming an 8 team league. I'm not getting the vibe from The Rock, Danny, or Redbird they're looking to do the same ol, same ol, 8 team ten week season. If not for year one, by year 3 (assuming the league lasts) I'd expect one team and Canada and one in Mexico. With more of a focus on the players, I could see Danny Garcia's production company producing an XFL "Hard Knocks" type show and selling it to Amazon, Hulu, Netflix, etc. While I don't see them going gimmicky FCF football style, I do expect more integration between gambling, fantasy games, and digital media this time around. In a sense I could see them pulling off what the AAF intended to do, half football/half tech and really provide a global, year round presence.
herns
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Re: XFL potential look for 3.0

Post by herns »

4th&long wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:41 am With XFL teasing an announcement on Manningcast 2 weeks ago on ESPN2 and it later posted as a news item on NFL.com what can we guess is happening with XFL 3.0. Rock said an announcement in 2/3 weeks, which is closing in fast.

We've seen teases with NFL from DG and now NFL with XFL. Could there be a TV deal with NFLN in the works? What about ESPN? What impact, if any will that and the new USFL have on city choices?

NFLN is in desperate need of original programing - other than constant NFL talk.... especially after the superbowl. The other big offseason event is the Draft, followed by camp coverage and preseason.
ESPN is loaded with content having NBA, CBB, MLB and adding NHL. So would they be interested as much?
I'm seeing ESPN as possibly a mix of mostly ESPN+ with some ESPN/ESPN2 also. Could WM and CBS get in the mix? Yes but unlikely as WM has NBA/NHL and CBS has CBB, but CBS also has Paramount+ to fill.
I do not see these as combined as a big contract, but hopefully at least net-net zero or plus $.

Now as far a cities... Depending on how much influence NFL has I could see a shift out of major TV/NFL markets sans a couple. I'm going with an NFL influence that has at least some weight to it.

With that and the pending USFL... I can see some major shifts to the largest Non-NFL FB hungry cities.

TB > Orlando
Houston > SA
LA > SD
Seattle > Portland
That's 5 non-NFL cities (St Louis is a give-me) with Dallas, DC and NY as large enough or needed for ratings while satiating FB fans in non-FB markets. That gives the league plenty of TV audience left roughly 16% of the TV houshoelds like USFL - and a more western-half of country look than USFL.

That leaves Dallas, NY and DC standing. But even Dallas and DC could move to Austin and VA Beach or Richmond OR even Raleigh-Durham or Columbus. I see NY standing for TV audiences.

Its all speculation at this point but that's my educated guess.
I think the xfl needs espn/abc and another big network or streaming service. I wouldn’t hate nfl network but it would set the league up to feel minor league imo. As far as teams go idk what to expect
GregParks
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Re: XFL potential look for 3.0

Post by GregParks »

ESPN/ABC and NFL Network is the combination I've thought for a while now. I guess NBC/USA wouldn't be impossible if you split the season like NASCAR does: first half of the year's games on NBC, then ABC/ESPN gets the second half when NBC is airing USFL games. The only other option would be CBS, but to me it would be a huge blow to end up on CBS Sports Network, which isn't on anyone's radar. Streaming is probably in play too for SOMETHING, but I think to grab a sizable audience out of the gate you need to be on traditional cable/network, then maybe at some point transition games to streaming. I'd be fine if they went streaming for whatever ancillary programming they want to do outside of the actual games.

I didn't think about the NFL Draft but since 4th&long brought it up, an ESPN/ABC and NFL Network combo would really throw a wrench into things for games on draft weekend, since all also air the draft (don't remember if ABC does all three days but the other two certainly do). So do you do the Saturday game that weekend on a streaming platform as a test of sorts? Or do you only have games on Sunday that weekend?

EDIT: Now that I look at it, the draft may be the first weekend AFTER the XFL season, or even on Championship weekend in 2023; that would actually be a nice boost to the championship game, presumably on Sunday, to have those networks talking about it or advertising it during the draft. So it may not interfere, if they stick to eight teams and a ten-week season (which of course, we don't know for sure about that yet, either).

The fact that they apparently don't even have St. Louis locked in as a city as of last reporting a week or so ago causes me to kind of throw up my hands in terms of guessing cities.
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johnnyangryfuzzball
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Re: XFL potential look for 3.0

Post by johnnyangryfuzzball »

Do you think they give up on Seattle so soon after it was right behind St. Louis on attendance, though? The only thing different was the Kraken arrived—yet the Blues didn't seem to have a negative impact on the Battlehawks.
4th&long
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Re: XFL potential look for 3.0

Post by 4th&long »

johnnyangryfuzzball wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:20 pm Do you think they give up on Seattle so soon after it was right behind St. Louis on attendance, though? The only thing different was the Kraken arrived—yet the Blues didn't seem to have a negative impact on the Battlehawks.
No, I think the give up on Seattle because the NFL likely wants teams in large markets not in NFL. Portland is close by to Seattle, and is a large non-NFL market with an MLS stadium. That was my logic for my "educated guess" ;)
MGB01
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Re: XFL potential look for 3.0

Post by MGB01 »

4th&long wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:50 pm
johnnyangryfuzzball wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:20 pm Do you think they give up on Seattle so soon after it was right behind St. Louis on attendance, though? The only thing different was the Kraken arrived—yet the Blues didn't seem to have a negative impact on the Battlehawks.
No, I think the give up on Seattle because the NFL likely wants teams in large markets not in NFL. Portland is close by to Seattle, and is a large non-NFL market with an MLS stadium. That was my logic for my "educated guess" ;)
It's been a point of contention as to whether a team could play at Providence Park, the city does own the stadium not the Timbers/Thorns (As to whether they kicked PSU out, they (PSU) dropped from Big Sky champs to 3-9 then 0-11 and were drawing less than 5000 by the time they left, there might have been a small nudge out the door). Oregon State, who used to play occasionally at Civic Stadium through the late 80s, plays Montana State in September, and that might be followed up with future games dependent on how well it goes as well as future schedules (in which they end up with at least six on-campus home games).

The name Dragons might have to go since it conjures up the unsuccessful Forest Dragons (which would also go for the Portland AFL experience in general) however.
Gopher123
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Re: XFL potential look for 3.0

Post by Gopher123 »

I’m on board with ESPN/ABC/NFLN being the likely broadcast partners. If laxtreme hadn’t brought up the “Hard Knocks” style XFL show, I would have. I think there is a strong possibility that a show like this gets announced along with the broadcast partners. Jim Monos brought up a potential show like this in his podcast maybe 3-4 weeks ago. It’s clearly on their mind.

As far as the teams go I think 4th&long’s idea is logical and makes sense but I still think there’s going to be a bigger shift somewhere. I go back to the Rock talking re-alignment and maybe I’m reading too much into that. The teams moving to the markets 4th&long suggested aren’t far enough to have to realign anything. Unless the XFL does North - South divisions and realign that way. I could see them going Canada and Mexico year 1 to go all in. I’m not saying I would agree with it being that soon but I can foresee this group taking a big swing early.

I don’t feel like any team is safe to return at this point, not even St. Louis. If it’s true and there isn’t a deal yet that’s cause for alarm. Both sides want St. Louis but the only thing I can think of that could be a problem is XFL 2.0 gave them something like $100,000 per game plus concessions. Way better than they got from the Rams. Perhaps XFL 3.0 doesn’t want to offer this much and the Dome isn’t budging. Of course it could be smoke and mirrors though too and a deal could be in place.

Seattle could need a rebrand as well because the logo is so close to UAB. After the Roughnecks logo issue I could see this group changing anything now that could cause problems down the road.
GDAWG
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Re: XFL potential look for 3.0

Post by GDAWG »

They should not go into Canada yet. The CFL is still around and as long as they are still around, the XFL should not go there yet.
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