CFL/XFL media rights worth $100mm - so called expert

[4th&long]

https://3downnation.com/2021/03/25/cfl- ... ly-report/

>> “If you had the same Canadian markets and the same U.S. markets, and you’re talking about a pretty big league now at that point — you might have to consolidate some of these markets — but if you’re talking about a property that can touch let’s say 30 of the top 60 (designated market areas) across Canada and the U.S., I think you could easily go to market and be asking for $100 million U.S. a year,” Cohen predicted.<<

https://torontosun.com/sports/football/ ... million-us

Is the story referenced.

This is no doubt those smaller CFL teams may get the axe. On the $$$$ if the XFL/CFL is worth $100mm, and CFL alone is $40mm based on current TSN/RSD deal then the XFL is worth $60mm. I don't buy that XFL needs the CFL to get the $60mm.

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

“What I like about the alliances they’re forming and I’m hoping this is heading in that direction, is that this XFL/CFL league will start to pull in players from Mexico, football players from Japan, and that is going to say to TV Asahi and NHK, this is interesting, I want to broadcast in Japan one CFL game a week because players X, Y and Z are playing in the league,” Cohen said.

The Spring League tried this approach last year—was there any degree of success with it?

[Tank55]

I think it's a pretty irresponsible headline by the Toronto Sun and lousy journalism by all the fan sites echoing it.

if you’re talking about a property that can touch let’s say 30 of the top 60 (designated market areas) across Canada and the U.S

Someone correct me if I'm misinterpreting this, but I read that as a 30-team league. For this guy to say that a theoretical 30-team CXFL could be worth $100M annually is one thing, but all these headlines imply (at least to me), that the combined CFL and XFL as we currently know them (that is 9 CFL teams + 8 XFL teams) could be worth $100M annually. Which is not what the guy's saying.

Back of the napkin math, wasn't the cost of producing an XFL game about $400K? So 43 games * 400K = $17.2M. If you expand the teams to 30 and the game weeks to let's say 16 or whatever, it's not hard to imagine a TV deal that grosses $100M, easily. Of course, net revenue is what we really care about, and we have no idea what kind of revenue the expert is even referring to. Great job, Toronto Sun.

The current CFL contract is apparently worth about $37M USD. It's again pretty easy to imagine that scaling to $100M with three times the inventory and access to the US. Do we know who covers the cost of production in the TSN contract?

[GregParks]

Tank, the only thing I can think of is by using the word "touch," is he saying, for example, that Tampa would include the Tampa market, but it would also "touch" (or be close enough to include) Miami and Orlando, which are considered separate markets in the top 60?

I just don't see how the CFL, which does not have much in the way of a US TV contract, and the XFL, which couldn't even get paid with Vince at the helm and now can't seem to get the kind of deal the Garcia/Johnson/RedBird team is looking for, is suddenly going to be worth $100 million when they combine. I get where the guy is coming from in terms of his thinking, but you can throw around theoretical dollar amounts 'til the cows come home: The real worth of the league(s), combined or not, is what someone is willing to pay. And we haven't seen that willingness to pay, at least yet.

[4th&long]

Tank, the only thing I can think of is by using the word "touch," is he saying, for example, that Tampa would include the Tampa market, but it would also "touch" (or be close enough to include) Miami and Orlando, which are considered separate markets in the top 60?

I just don't see how the CFL, which does not have much in the way of a US TV contract, and the XFL, which couldn't even get paid with Vince at the helm and now can't seem to get the kind of deal the Garcia/Johnson/RedBird team is looking for, is suddenly going to be worth $100 million when they combine. I get where the guy is coming from in terms of his thinking, but you can throw around theoretical dollar amounts 'til the cows come home: The real worth of the league(s), combined or not, is what someone is willing to pay. And we haven't seen that willingness to pay, at least yet.

GP. Mostly agreed here - Except we really DON'T know what the nets offered XFL in 2021/22.

BTW - I come up with math of $60mm (that's million) in my above post for the XFL's portion of the $100mm as Canada is currently $40.

When I say we don't know - we really don't. What we do know is DG-RBC-Rk stated to Mike Mitchell that they want "a LUCRATIVE TV/Media rights" deal. We also know that the day after they announced they were delaying until 2022, Fox signed a deal with TSL. I get that its not on the same level as XFL, its not. But its viable and playing. To me that was telling. Fox may have made a reasonable-man offer for XFL rights in 2021 and it wasn't "Lucrative" enough. Fox saw righting on wall and moved on. Granted that's speculation but reading between the lines, the words used, and timing of events - its likely not far off.

What does it mean? It means that $100mm spread over 17 combined teams - aint cutting it either because DG-RBC-Rk want - NO RISK and No out of pocket - they want the TV/Media companies to completely cover - ie fund - thier league.

So I don't see team Canada, the CFL, getting them to the promise land.

I can see RBC making a play for CFL and changing it to be more like US FB and adding USA teams. But they don't need a shell XFL for that. And CFL fans will freak. Its also possible RBC just makes a separate play for the CFL, again don't need XFL for that.

So its very possible that FOX or and/or other media companies offered XFL a much better deal (possible with minimum rating requirements) than the no pay 2020 OL BS. Say $30-50mm. But DG-RBC-Rk again want NO RISK and that's not cutting it for them.

And I really wish they'd never bought it and VM had bought it back

[GregParks]

Tank, the only thing I can think of is by using the word "touch," is he saying, for example, that Tampa would include the Tampa market, but it would also "touch" (or be close enough to include) Miami and Orlando, which are considered separate markets in the top 60?

I just don't see how the CFL, which does not have much in the way of a US TV contract, and the XFL, which couldn't even get paid with Vince at the helm and now can't seem to get the kind of deal the Garcia/Johnson/RedBird team is looking for, is suddenly going to be worth $100 million when they combine. I get where the guy is coming from in terms of his thinking, but you can throw around theoretical dollar amounts 'til the cows come home: The real worth of the league(s), combined or not, is what someone is willing to pay. And we haven't seen that willingness to pay, at least yet.

Fox may have made a reasonable-man offer for XFL rights in 2021 and it wasn't "Lucrative" enough. Fox saw righting on wall and moved on. Granted that's speculation but reading between the lines, the words used, and timing of events - its likely not far off.

I feel like if there had been a negotiation and exchange of numbers, it would've leaked somehow. Whether by SBJ, Sportico, or whatever. And yet...nothing. From the XFL's perspective, it would've helped saying, "well, we tried to get a reasonable TV deal but FOX wouldn't play ball." If you're FOX, you could say you offered the XFL a deal on par with or better than what they did with Vince, but they didn't take it so FOX was moving on. I just find it hard to believe it would've gotten as deep as an offer made with nothing reported.

And I really wish they'd never bought it and VM had bought it back

The further we get away from the bankruptcy, the less I feel it was a necessary/right move. You can say "Vince bought into the pandemic fears" or whatever, but remember, he was on the call with the president and the leaders of all the sports leagues last spring. I'm not sure we ever learned what was said on the call but the president's public stance had always been that he wanted things opened and sports to continue. I'd be surprised if he expressed any differently on that call.

Based on legal documents, Vince also had to be talked into cancelling week six by Oliver Luck (even though a Dragons player and fans in Seattle had tested positive); doesn't sound like a guy who was concerned about the pandemic. He certainly didn't shut WWE down and go into hiding when the pandemic hit; in fact, he had to be talked into a more stringent mask policy for those backstage by Kevin Owens. Don't forget the much-touted (on here at least) bubble plan that was available that would've allowed the league to continue in the event things didn't improve to the point fans would be allowed in 2021.

Maybe it's hindsight now that things are opening back up, but the bankruptcy just reeks of Vince trying to get out of paying people he owed money to. He could have easily put things on hold, furloughed employees, etc, and reassessed at a later date. I've said this before: All this is easy to say because it's not my money. But I won't beg for the league to go back to Vince when the reason it's in this mess in the first place is because of him.

[Tank55]

Good point on a single market "touching" other markets. I don't think that's how I read it, but definitely plausible.

I thought the XFL was under two-year deals with the networks for 2020 and 2021 -- no cash, but the cost of the production covered (not nothing).

It definitely felt like Vince panicked, and I can't blame him. His net worth was like halved in a week, and the XFL was a fun side project, not his livelihood. It's definitely upsetting to see people get screwed over in the process, especially after so many (including me) went out of their way to trumpet what an outstanding job he did taking care of everyone when XFL 2001 went under.

Either way, he's still a first ballot XFL Hall of Famer.

[GregParks]

It definitely felt like Vince panicked, and I can't blame him. His net worth was like halved in a week, and the XFL was a fun side project, not his livelihood.

Ultimately, that's probably what it boiled down to.

[MGB01]

Good point on a single market "touching" other markets. I don't think that's how I read it, but definitely plausible.

I thought the XFL was under two-year deals with the networks for 2020 and 2021 -- no cash, but the cost of the production covered (not nothing).

It definitely felt like Vince panicked, and I can't blame him. His net worth was like halved in a week, and the XFL was a fun side project, not his livelihood. It's definitely upsetting to see people get screwed over in the process, especially after so many (including me) went out of their way to trumpet what an outstanding job he did taking care of everyone when XFL 2001 went under.

Either way, he's still a first ballot XFL Hall of Famer.

Well one, you could look at it as if they did get a paying TV deal, just didn't net anything after the production costs were taken out.

And two, as I said a few days ago, he also saw a three-year timeline for the league becoming six or more thanks to the pandemic and decided it wasn't worth it, plus you had to wonder with Luck seeing some of these conference commissioner jobs coming open how much would he be committed--and if there were already problems in 2019-20 it would be worse the next two years and then you're right back basically to where you were the summer he was hired (methinks him and McDevitt could just absolutely destroy him with this if they wanted to).

[laxtreme56]

Tank, the only thing I can think of is by using the word "touch," is he saying, for example, that Tampa would include the Tampa market, but it would also "touch" (or be close enough to include) Miami and Orlando, which are considered separate markets in the top 60?

I just don't see how the CFL, which does not have much in the way of a US TV contract, and the XFL, which couldn't even get paid with Vince at the helm and now can't seem to get the kind of deal the Garcia/Johnson/RedBird team is looking for, is suddenly going to be worth $100 million when they combine. I get where the guy is coming from in terms of his thinking, but you can throw around theoretical dollar amounts 'til the cows come home: The real worth of the league(s), combined or not, is what someone is willing to pay. And we haven't seen that willingness to pay, at least yet.

Fox may have made a reasonable-man offer for XFL rights in 2021 and it wasn't "Lucrative" enough. Fox saw righting on wall and moved on. Granted that's speculation but reading between the lines, the words used, and timing of events - its likely not far off.

I feel like if there had been a negotiation and exchange of numbers, it would've leaked somehow. Whether by SBJ, Sportico, or whatever. And yet...nothing. From the XFL's perspective, it would've helped saying, "well, we tried to get a reasonable TV deal but FOX wouldn't play ball." If you're FOX, you could say you offered the XFL a deal on par with or better than what they did with Vince, but they didn't take it so FOX was moving on. I just find it hard to believe it would've gotten as deep as an offer made with nothing reported.

And I really wish they'd never bought it and VM had bought it back

The further we get away from the bankruptcy, the less I feel it was a necessary/right move. You can say "Vince bought into the pandemic fears" or whatever, but remember, he was on the call with the president and the leaders of all the sports leagues last spring. I'm not sure we ever learned what was said on the call but the president's public stance had always been that he wanted things opened and sports to continue. I'd be surprised if he expressed any differently on that call.

Based on legal documents, Vince also had to be talked into cancelling week six by Oliver Luck (even though a Dragons player and fans in Seattle had tested positive); doesn't sound like a guy who was concerned about the pandemic. He certainly didn't shut WWE down and go into hiding when the pandemic hit; in fact, he had to be talked into a more stringent mask policy for those backstage by Kevin Owens. Don't forget the much-touted (on here at least) bubble plan that was available that would've allowed the league to continue in the event things didn't improve to the point fans would be allowed in 2021.

Maybe it's hindsight now that things are opening back up, but the bankruptcy just reeks of Vince trying to get out of paying people he owed money to. He could have easily put things on hold, furloughed employees, etc, and reassessed at a later date. I've said this before: All this is easy to say because it's not my money. But I won't beg for the league to go back to Vince when the reason it's in this mess in the first place is because of him.

I agree with you 100% Greg. I've been saying this all along, if Vince really wanted the XFL to work why didn't he just put it on "pause." Keep a few front office staff and social media team to keep the league in the public's eye to some extent, and just rehire as many people back when things started looking promising. Vince laid off his entire live events WWE staff but has brought many back on board in anticipation of live touring shows once again. Heck, why not declare Chapter 11 if you're so intent on bankruptcy, at least you'd get to reorganize and consolidate your debts.

I'm sure the messy bankruptcy left a bad taste in the mouths of sponsors and vendors. If Progressive paid $1 million to sponsor the XFL regular season, they're theoretically owed $500k for the cancelled 5 weeks. They may be lucky to see 1/10th of that now. I don't see them running to answer the door when The Rock and Redbird comes knocking. Just as the Arena League saw most of their sponsors dwindle after the lost season of 09, I can understand why the networks and sponsors may be more leery with XFL 3.0.