No one wants to play three-down football in America - S Brunt

[4th&long]

>> Stephen Brunt: ‘No one wants to play three-down football in America’ <<

https://3downnation.com/2021/03/15/step ... n-america/

>> “Yes — straight up. I’m not a doomsayer or any of those things, but I’ve been through CFL near death experiences before. There’s an enormous amount of uncertainty around the CFL — it’s fragile.”
~
“They’re not going to go to America and play three-down football. You can’t put a Canadian field in the stadiums we’re talking about. The ratio forget about it. If everybody loved that stuff so much there wouldn’t be an issue,” Brunt said.

“They might take some Canadian stuff with them, the motion, yard off the ball. But no one wants to play three-down football in America. You can’t tell me [the CFL is] more fun than watching Patrick Mahomes, NFL football is a lot of fun now.” <<

I still have not heard a good reason why the XFL ownership team is pursuing this... Do they need sports experience of the CFL to add credibility for TV nets? Interesting...

[laxtreme56]

Obtaining the CFL adds credibility as its existed for over 60 years, and will add some credibility for US fans. TSN pays the CFL around$50 million a year for exclusive rights. There are clauses and escalators in the contract based on ratings and expansion that could potentially double that number. Redbird would get a piece of that potentially lucrative pie.

Let's not forget ESPN owns around 20% of TSN and pays a small rights fee for CFL games (roughly $500k a year) ESPN can easily use the TSN production crew and announcers without having to shell out huge expenses for its own talent. (XFL games cost$400k a game to produce) A 16 team super league opens up the possibility for a bidding war between networks, increased advertising revenue on both sides of the border, and centralized ownership with cost control.

CFL owners will easily give up their 3 downs for increased revenue. The majority of players grew up playing 4 down football so the transition will be seamless. You may lose the older generation of CFL fans in the 50+ crowd, but gain more in the coveted 18-34 demographic. Redbird isn't going for a home run here, they want an out of the park grandslam. This could be the most exciting development in pro football in decades.

[4th&long]

Obtaining the CFL adds credibility as its existed for over 60 years, and will add some credibility for US fans. TSN pays the CFL around$50 million a year for exclusive rights. There are clauses and escalators in the contract based on ratings and expansion that could potentially double that number. Redbird would get a piece of that potentially lucrative pie.

Let's not forget ESPN owns around 20% of TSN and pays a small rights fee for CFL games (roughly $500k a year) ESPN can easily use the TSN production crew and announcers without having to shell out huge expenses for its own talent. (XFL games cost$400k a game to produce) A 16 team super league opens up the possibility for a bidding war between networks, increased advertising revenue on both sides of the border, and centralized ownership with cost control.

CFL owners will easily give up their 3 downs for increased revenue. The majority of players grew up playing 4 down football so the transition will be seamless. You may lose the older generation of CFL fans in the 50+ crowd, but gain more in the coveted 18-34 demographic. Redbird isn't going for a home run here, they want an out of the park grandslam. This could be the most exciting development in pro football in decades.

Some points here make sense. But I'm not hearing a hard case for the XFL benefit - least of all their goals in their own words.

I do not agree that a 16-18 league team league, with all new teams in Canada, adds to TV ratings in the United States. People don't just watch more because a league is bigger - MLS proves that.

CFL does have a league operation, commisioner, TV contract - in canada / small usa one, coaches, with team organizations. It is possible that they don't have the expertise in putting together a league like OL/VM and can leverage the CFL.

Otherwise I'm not sold - at least on what is out in the open. I see the CFL benefits more.

[Coffeeeyes]

Something that I see talked about in all these articles that literally everyone ignores is the ratio and the tax laws between countries.

The original CFL-USA expansion was ruined by a multitude of things. The transition to four down ball fixes a lot of those except the ratio and the obvious financial benefit to be on a USA team than a Canadian team. The CFL right now has a perfect system that doesn’t just make it competitive and attractive to Americans but also helps develop the game in Canada and let Canadians play alongside American players. I’ve seen a lot of CFL fans online upset about the loss of the ratio than anything because of US labor laws. It’s a good way to advance the sport in Canada without allowing an American dominated sport become ... well American dominated.

Another point is that it’s much more financially attractive for a CFL player to relocate from a small market CFL team to an XFL team in Houston. Sure that issue exists concurrently and we saw it in XFL2020 but a lot of CFL players prefer the CFL because their abilities work well with the three down rule set and they can make a career out of the CFL, if the CFL moves to a four down rule set, there is literally no benefit to be in a small city in Canada where the taxes suck and you can make much more money in Houston or LA.

And feeding off that precious comment I made... that also doesn’t work in the XFL’s favor. When a potential merger occurs. The XFL will most likely spend several years financially reaching the same point as the CFL, that’s when you’d see above happen but before that, the XFL/CFL salary is going to be all kinds of jacked.

The average CFL salary is 86k$, the average XFL salary was between 22k$ and 46k$. That’s a huge difference. The CFL also isn’t owned by one group in its entirety, it can pay players like Bo-Levi Mitchell 700k a year and superstar QBs in the CFL make regularly near that amount, some WR’s and DE’s make close to 300k and 200k. The XFL couldn’t pay even 5 players 500k without struggling. What’s gonna stop a XFL QB who has an insane season like PJ Walker and secures XFL/CFL MVP from signing to a wealthy CFL team like the Riders for amounts of money that would bleed a XFL team and then what stops a Cam Philips from leaving the XFL to sign for 86k with a CFL team because the XFL can’t pay? The difference now is some players (like Philips) don’t want to play three down and would rather take their chance in the CFL, a merger would make that impossible until the leagues catch up and by that point, it’ll be frustrating and probably will close the XFL part like they did with the CFL-USA expansion.

A much better way for this that isn’t a merger is a talent sharing agreement, that could be done in a million ways, players can play for both leagues different seasons, they could start a shared farm league, the CFL and XFL can pick in each other drafts, etc etc. An all-star game or a shared championship, maybe both. This doesn’t take away from the Grey Cup or XFL championship, the shared championship is a ratings bonzana, seeing Toronto vs NY is sooo much more appealing than any CFL game and the added nationalism is nice. The All-Star game is a nice spotlight and a possible skills competition allows fan interaction and international cooperation through sport. Thirdly, adding the XFL to the CFL2.0 initiative would legitimatise a movement to expand football internationally and try to rush into markets the NFL is too cocky or too self absorbed to rush into aside from two games in the country a year. The XFL has more potential to help the CFL here, adding a XFL vs CFL game in northern Mexico would help the CFL and its aspirations in the market, especially with all the Spanish speakers in the USA vs Canada. And finally, an attempt by the Rock to help the CFL with its tv deals in the USA. The CFL is stuck in its contract with the TSN. The OP makes it sound good and it is but the deal is conditional. I believe it isn’t $50 million a year right now but closer to $25 as the league isn’t meeting all conditions. The only market it could spread into is the USA and internationally and the CFL has completely given up on the USA, hence the attempt in Mexico, Japan and Europe. The Rock could help the CFL secure bigger tv deals in the USA which could give the CFL larger exposure and stability. Obviously this can’t be done over night but as I said, competitions between the leagues, especially in today’s social media driven world would be received VERY well and I feel a lot of people would watch it. People who previously wouldn’t give three down football a try may now with their favorite XFL players participating. People can be drawn into anything if the product is entertaining enough to look further into it, look at the weird revival of indoor football on twitch happening right now all because of some outdated washed NFL players.

Sorry for the long post but I wanted to put my opinion in on the speculation.

[MarkNelson]

Coffeeeyes, you bring up some real truths. I just don’t know how any real deal gets done.

[4th&long]

Something that I see talked about in all these articles that literally everyone ignores is the ratio and the tax laws between countries.

The original CFL-USA expansion was ruined by a multitude of things. The transition to four down ball fixes a lot of those except the ratio and the obvious financial benefit to be on a USA team than a Canadian team. The CFL right now has a perfect system that doesn’t just make it competitive and attractive to Americans but also helps develop the game in Canada and let Canadians play alongside American players. I’ve seen a lot of CFL fans online upset about the loss of the ratio than anything because of US labor laws. It’s a good way to advance the sport in Canada without allowing an American dominated sport become ... well American dominated.

Another point is that it’s much more financially attractive for a CFL player to relocate from a small market CFL team to an XFL team in Houston. Sure that issue exists concurrently and we saw it in XFL2020 but a lot of CFL players prefer the CFL because their abilities work well with the three down rule set and they can make a career out of the CFL, if the CFL moves to a four down rule set, there is literally no benefit to be in a small city in Canada where the taxes suck and you can make much more money in Houston or LA.

And feeding off that precious comment I made... that also doesn’t work in the XFL’s favor. When a potential merger occurs. The XFL will most likely spend several years financially reaching the same point as the CFL, that’s when you’d see above happen but before that, the XFL/CFL salary is going to be all kinds of jacked.

The average CFL salary is 86k$, the average XFL salary was between 22k$ and 46k$. That’s a huge difference. The CFL also isn’t owned by one group in its entirety, it can pay players like Bo-Levi Mitchell 700k a year and superstar QBs in the CFL make regularly near that amount, some WR’s and DE’s make close to 300k and 200k. The XFL couldn’t pay even 5 players 500k without struggling. What’s gonna stop a XFL QB who has an insane season like PJ Walker and secures XFL/CFL MVP from signing to a wealthy CFL team like the Riders for amounts of money that would bleed a XFL team and then what stops a Cam Philips from leaving the XFL to sign for 86k with a CFL team because the XFL can’t pay? The difference now is some players (like Philips) don’t want to play three down and would rather take their chance in the CFL, a merger would make that impossible until the leagues catch up and by that point, it’ll be frustrating and probably will close the XFL part like they did with the CFL-USA expansion.

A much better way for this that isn’t a merger is a talent sharing agreement, that could be done in a million ways, players can play for both leagues different seasons, they could start a shared farm league, the CFL and XFL can pick in each other drafts, etc etc. An all-star game or a shared championship, maybe both. This doesn’t take away from the Grey Cup or XFL championship, the shared championship is a ratings bonzana, seeing Toronto vs NY is sooo much more appealing than any CFL game and the added nationalism is nice. The All-Star game is a nice spotlight and a possible skills competition allows fan interaction and international cooperation through sport. Thirdly, adding the XFL to the CFL2.0 initiative would legitimatise a movement to expand football internationally and try to rush into markets the NFL is too cocky or too self absorbed to rush into aside from two games in the country a year. The XFL has more potential to help the CFL here, adding a XFL vs CFL game in northern Mexico would help the CFL and its aspirations in the market, especially with all the Spanish speakers in the USA vs Canada. And finally, an attempt by the Rock to help the CFL with its tv deals in the USA. The CFL is stuck in its contract with the TSN. The OP makes it sound good and it is but the deal is conditional. I believe it isn’t $50 million a year right now but closer to $25 as the league isn’t meeting all conditions. The only market it could spread into is the USA and internationally and the CFL has completely given up on the USA, hence the attempt in Mexico, Japan and Europe. The Rock could help the CFL secure bigger tv deals in the USA which could give the CFL larger exposure and stability. Obviously this can’t be done over night but as I said, competitions between the leagues, especially in today’s social media driven world would be received VERY well and I feel a lot of people would watch it. People who previously wouldn’t give three down football a try may now with their favorite XFL players participating. People can be drawn into anything if the product is entertaining enough to look further into it, look at the weird revival of indoor football on twitch happening right now all because of some outdated washed NFL players.

Sorry for the long post but I wanted to put my opinion in on the speculation.

Good post Coffee, & good point MarkN.

We still are in the dark on XFL's reasons for talking with the CFL (its more clear why the CFL is talking to the XFL). We need some insider scoop or for the league to illuminate what's behind their motivation here.

I can tell you this much, once the league switches to 4down FB its not going to reverse course to 3down.

The one thing I keep going back to is that the CFL has a working organization that the XFL can leverage since I don't see them prepared to move forward. They put 2020 on hold meaning they have zip in place still.

It could also be a deal to become the NFL's summer dev league and the CFL/XFL gives up on the big markets down the road to the NFL and cashes in a % of that.

Despite all the talk they aren't doing this "for the love of Football" they are doing this "for the love of $$$". Hopefully those two overlap for us fans

[Tank55]

On the ratio, I thought we saw speculation that they could switch to a "global" quota, where Canadians could count toward that quota. Since Canada is by far the biggest source of non-American talent, Canadians would get the majority of those spots.

I'm not a labor lawyer, but my understanding is that you can't restrict positions for people of a specific foreign country (like Canada), but maybe something non-specific like that works?

On salary, keep in mind that that the XFL was playing a 10-game, 10-week schedule and the CFL plays an 18-game, 20-week schedule. The gap gets much closer on a per game basis.

[4th&long]

On the ratio, I thought we saw speculation that they could switch to a "global" quota, where Canadians could count toward that quota. Since Canada is by far the biggest source of non-American talent, Canadians would get the majority of those spots.

I'm not a labor lawyer, but my understanding is that you can't restrict positions for people of a specific foreign country (like Canada), but maybe something non-specific like that works?

On salary, keep in mind that that the XFL was playing a 10-game, 10-week schedule and the CFL plays an 18-game, 20-week schedule. The gaps gets much closer on a per game basis.

This is a very legit point.