The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

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4th&long
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Re: The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

Post by 4th&long » Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:37 pm

>>Media executives are finally accepting the decline of cable TV as they plot a new path forward<<

Speak of the devil. One thing they don't discuss is that cable tv is losing because its not compelling TV to watch. The talent sucks and when you replace quality with political and social messaging its just accelerating the demise. I never watch big network programming anymore. Seinfeld could never be made today yet everyone loves it.
What I'm saying is even the streaming service will eventually suffer, 90% of their content comes from old TV.

Sports alone can't save TV, 24/7 messaging is accelerating its demise. A return to Must-See-TV is the only answer.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/big-med ... ibers.html

>> At least three large U.S. media companies expect the number of U.S. households that subscribe to a traditional pay-TV bundle to fall to about 50 million in the next five years.
At 50 million subscribers, it’s unclear the current pay-TV model can survive without falling further.
The jury is still out on if streaming economics will convince investors to breath new life into traditional media companies.<<

Ultimately Sports on TV is the Main driver. What happens in 5-10 yrs ? Big question.

GregParks
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Re: The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

Post by GregParks » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:45 pm

4th&long wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:07 pm
And FB itself is not a niche - its the league that's new.
Yes, I made that distinction in my post. But that's also a very big caveat - pro football does well with fans on TV when it's NFL or major college sports; not so much for secondary leagues. It's part of the reason so many others have failed. If it was as simple as "football is popular," all kinds of big-money backers would be throwing their hat in the ring to create their own football leagues.
4th&long wrote:Now was it OL who made the deal or VM ? OL may have pushed the deal knowing VM offered up $300mm. But I'm not sure VM liked that deal.
If it was Vince's money, I'd have to imagine he played a very large part in negotiating the deals. Even with his broad powers as CEO, I can't imagine Oliver Luck had much to do with it. Vince has experience negotiating major TV deals; I'm not sure Luck's history there.
4th&long wrote:Its very possible the Bankruptcy was to get out of the non-paying deal after seeing the beyond expectations TV ratings and attendance. Then he could renegotiate for a paying deal in 2021.
Your definition of "very possible" and mine are apparently quite different. This take would assume the following:

(a) Vince was willing to crater the reputation of the XFL AGAIN by sending it into bankruptcy on the CHANCE he could negotiate a better deal (and if he couldn't...then what?)
(b) Networks wouldn't be put off by having their apparently sweetheart deal of only covering production costs voided by the bankruptcy only for Vince to try to get them to pay up for future years; the idea that the networks would blindly do this instead of being outraged by Vince's tactic would seem far-fetched.
(c) Let's not kid ourselves: TV ratings were good for the most part (with some warning signs) and attendance was fine (really good in some places, disappointing in others), but neither was blow-you-out-of-the-water good to the point where Vince should've wanted to risk blowing the whole thing up to renegotiate his TV deals.
4th&long wrote:But some jackasses didn't want VM back.
Yes, imagine I'm a coach who is owed a large sum of money by the owner of a league that goes into bankruptcy to try to buy the league back SPECIFICALLY to avoid having to pay me. And even if he doesn't buy the league back, I may not see my money owed EVER or at least for a long time. And then imagine that it was all a ploy to get a better TV deal and who knows if I would be rehired and whether or not the contract terms would be the same (especially with Luck's ouster). I can't IMAGINE why some of them would be upset...
johnnyangryfuzzball wrote:The best option the XFL has remains a broadcast contract with an audience as broad as possible.
I tend to agree with this. I think streaming should be considered, especially if the money is there, but cable still has the largest reach. And at this point, you need a medium that will reach the widest base possible. I'd love a combo of the two, where games are on TV and shoulder programming is streaming. That way, you're reaching both worlds.

Which brings me to a question I've been pondering: Would you rather see the XFL start back up on an ESPN/FS1-level network, even if they aren't paid much or at all; or would you rather the league take a big-paying deal on a streaming service or on a lesser network like NBCSN or CBS Sports Network?
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Tank55
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Re: The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

Post by Tank55 » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:26 pm

GregParks wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:45 pm
Which brings me to a question I've been pondering: Would you rather see the XFL start back up on an ESPN/FS1-level network, even if they aren't paid much or at all; or would you rather the league take a big-paying deal on a streaming service or on a lesser network like NBCSN or CBS Sports Network?
That's the multi-million dollar question ownership will need to answer. I think the real answer is you take ESPN/ABC/FOX for as long as your runway allows, and then you have to take the money. The longer you can wait, the more robust/mature your audience and the more you should be able to be able to command elsewhere. But only ownership knows how long they can trade exposure for revenue.
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4th&long
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Re: The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

Post by 4th&long » Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:45 pm

Tank55 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:26 pm
GregParks wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:45 pm
Which brings me to a question I've been pondering: Would you rather see the XFL start back up on an ESPN/FS1-level network, even if they aren't paid much or at all; or would you rather the league take a big-paying deal on a streaming service or on a lesser network like NBCSN or CBS Sports Network?
That's the multi-million dollar question ownership will need to answer. I think the real answer is you take ESPN/ABC/FOX for as long as your runway allows, and then you have to take the money. The longer you can wait, the more robust/mature your audience and the more you should be able to be able to command elsewhere. But only ownership knows how long they can trade exposure for revenue.
You take the money - BUT you aren't going to get it on CBSSN, nor NBCSN they don't have the reach. Very few have VM money to not get paid 2-3 yrs and then wait for the jackpot.

But will a Net invest a TV schedule into a new league - that is UNDER FUNDED? No, Just Ask CBS and AAF.

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Re: The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

Post by laxtreme56 » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:50 pm

4th&long wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:45 pm
Tank55 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:26 pm
GregParks wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:45 pm
Which brings me to a question I've been pondering: Would you rather see the XFL start back up on an ESPN/FS1-level network, even if they aren't paid much or at all; or would you rather the league take a big-paying deal on a streaming service or on a lesser network like NBCSN or CBS Sports Network?
That's the multi-million dollar question ownership will need to answer. I think the real answer is you take ESPN/ABC/FOX for as long as your runway allows, and then you have to take the money. The longer you can wait, the more robust/mature your audience and the more you should be able to be able to command elsewhere. But only ownership knows how long they can trade exposure for revenue.
You take the money - BUT you aren't going to get it on CBSSN, nor NBCSN they don't have the reach. Very few have VM money to not get paid 2-3 yrs and then wait for the jackpot.

But will a Net invest a TV schedule into a new league - that is UNDER FUNDED? No, Just Ask CBS and AAF.
Networks didn't invest in the AAF because it was a rush job just to beat the XFL to the punch. Had they done their homework, lined up some paying sponsors, and had a 5 year game plan I'm sure CBS would've at least covered production costs and gave it some promotion. Which is exactly what would happen if the XFL got rushed out the gate for 2021. Take some time, get your ducks in a row and come out the gate full steam ahead when you're actually ready.

4th&long
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Re: The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

Post by 4th&long » Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:47 pm

laxtreme56 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:50 pm
4th&long wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:45 pm
Tank55 wrote:
Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:26 pm


That's the multi-million dollar question ownership will need to answer. I think the real answer is you take ESPN/ABC/FOX for as long as your runway allows, and then you have to take the money. The longer you can wait, the more robust/mature your audience and the more you should be able to be able to command elsewhere. But only ownership knows how long they can trade exposure for revenue.
You take the money - BUT you aren't going to get it on CBSSN, nor NBCSN they don't have the reach. Very few have VM money to not get paid 2-3 yrs and then wait for the jackpot.

But will a Net invest a TV schedule into a new league - that is UNDER FUNDED? No, Just Ask CBS and AAF.
Networks didn't invest in the AAF because it was a rush job just to beat the XFL to the punch. Had they done their homework, lined up some paying sponsors, and had a 5 year game plan I'm sure CBS would've at least covered production costs and gave it some promotion. Which is exactly what would happen if the XFL got rushed out the gate for 2021. Take some time, get your ducks in a row and come out the gate full steam ahead when you're actually ready.
Could not disagree more. AAF didn't get paying contract because they were underfunded and unproven.

XFL didn't rush out of the gate and Nets saw that AAF was performing at a somewhat solid level given its smaller markets. But XFL didn't get a paying contract,

XFL never tried - OL heard VM was willing to show losses for 3 years up to $300mm and he budgeted accordingly. Likely why VM wanted OL out. After the XFL got the ratings XFL 3.0 still could not because they are once again UNDERFUNDED. If new XFL owners can lineup money, nets may give some money, but they aren't financing (a large portion) a new league with new owners having no track record and already embracing controversial conduct.

TSL was the big winner tonight.
Last edited by 4th&long on Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

Post by Sounder » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:56 am

This notion has been rejected on this board before.....but I'm bringing it up again. Enough if this having the season the week after the Super Bowl. Sure you're gonna have people who aren't finished with football after the fall NFL and college seasons, you'll always get that initial surge....but the drop-off is inevitable because the difference in quality of play stands out more and fans become disinterested after the initial viewing. So have the season in the June through August window. By then.....people can't wait for football....and I believe the interest could only grow as the natural football season gets closer. I also see the NFL cutting back on preseason to maybe two games....so your season could go to late August after which any player who wants to can join an NFL practice squad roster if the interest is there. And by the way.....if Rock can't secure a way to get his games on free TV....don't bother with it.....if networks would be on a wait and see basis when it comes to a paying contract....why would you expect people to pony up for streaming services in order to see you? I know I won't.

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Re: The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

Post by MGB01 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:32 pm

Sounder wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:56 am
This notion has been rejected on this board before.....but I'm bringing it up again. Enough if this having the season the week after the Super Bowl. Sure you're gonna have people who aren't finished with football after the fall NFL and college seasons, you'll always get that initial surge....but the drop-off is inevitable because the difference in quality of play stands out more and fans become disinterested after the initial viewing. So have the season in the June through August window. By then.....people can't wait for football....and I believe the interest could only grow as the natural football season gets closer. I also see the NFL cutting back on preseason to maybe two games....so your season could go to late August after which any player who wants to can join an NFL practice squad roster if the interest is there. And by the way.....if Rock can't secure a way to get his games on free TV....don't bother with it.....if networks would be on a wait and see basis when it comes to a paying contract....why would you expect people to pony up for streaming services in order to see you? I know I won't.
For that reason it could be worth seeing what happens with the FCS "season"/playoffs. They had the last champ game on ABC, the first time back on network TV since CBS in the early-mid 90s. Some games from the stronger conferences could end up on ESPN (CAA, MVFC, Big Sky), and then the playoffs.

Of course this has two major obstacles: one, whatever the NBA and MLS look like, plus the NFL Draft which actually happens during the FCS playoffs, and two, though more like 1B, it's going to be a pretty tough sell considering the best FCS player (Trey Lance) just bounced after his "fall game".

But remember they also start in mid-late February too, also remember ABC and FOX were set to use the XFL as March Madness counterprogramming (much as Turner used the AAF for NBA/NCAA lead-in and CBS was set to). I'm not sure there was this great dropoff.

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Re: The future of sports TV rights fees, and how it could affect the XFL

Post by Sounder » Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:48 pm

Then again.....playing football in July in places like Dallas and Houston could be brutal for players. Just ask anyone who played in the usfl when it's eighteen game schedule reached June and July and temps rose into the 90's. In the CFL it doesn't matter because it's Canada. So that's a reason why you don't. The Houston Gamblers at least had the Astrodome, but that's out. A San Antonio team could have an indoor stadium though. In Dallas, there's Globe Life Park.....the Cowboys stadium is too gigantic, the Star in Frisco only seats about 12,000.

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