Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

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Tank55
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

Post by Tank55 »

With one week to go, here is the status in the conference races:

Clinched

Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Monmouth
NEC: Sacred Heart
OVC: Jacksonville State
Southland: Sam Houston

Winner take all

Patriot: Bucknell will host Holy Cross in the championship game on Saturday

A little complicated

Southern: VMI is 5-1 and Mercer is 5-2. If VMI beats The Citadel, they will take the AQ. If they lose, Mercer would need to beat Samford to jump ahead.

Missouri Valley: North Dakota State is 5-1 and North Dakota and South Dakota State are both 4-1. NDSU and SDSU play one another while North Dakota has Youngstown St. I believe these are the possible outcomes:

- NDSU wins: NDSU gets the AQ
- SDSU wins, ND wins: ND gets the AQ based on the head-to-head win
- SDSU wins, ND loses: SDSU gets the AQ

CAA: Delaware and Richmond are both 3-0 in conference and James Madison is 2-0. Richmond and James Madison play one another while Delaware has Villanova. I believe these are the four possible outcomes:

- JMU wins, UD wins: UD gets the AQ (I assume 4-0 would outrank 3-0, but maybe not)
- JMU wins, UD loses: JMU gets the AQ
- UR wins, UD loses: UR gets the AQ
- UR wins, UD wins: UD probably gets the AQ. I think it would come down to conference point differential between, and UD enters at +79, UR at +45.

Pioneer: Davidson and San Diego are both 4-1 win Davidson holding the tiebreaker. Valparaiso and Morehead State are both 3-2. Davidson faces Stetson, San Diego faces Valpo, and Morehead has Butler. I believe these are the possible outcomes:

- Davidson wins: Davidson gets the AQ
- Davidson loses, San Diego wins: San Diego gets the AQ
- Davidson loses, Valpo wins, Morehead loses: This would put Davidson, San Diego, and Valpo in a tie. San Diego would be eliminated based on having lost to both teams, and Davidson and Valpo would be seperated based on "strength of victory" in league play. I think that would favor Davidson, but no promises.
- Davidson loses, Valpo wins, Morehead wins: I think this would give us a four-way tie between Davidson, Valpo, San Diego, and Morehead. I think Davidson would win based on head-to-head record among the four teams, but again, not sure.
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MGB01
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

Post by MGB01 »

A bracketology:

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fc ... acketology

Now if they're doing it regionally I would expect Weber, EWU, the Dakota three, Sam Houston, SE La, and probably Jacksonville State (oh if San Diego hadn't lost to Davidson) to be one half of the bracket. Not that any of the projections here would be terrible travel-wise.
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

Post by Tank55 »

The MVFC has canceled the North Dakota at Youngstown State game on Saturday after the host Penguins determined today they could not play the game. UND (4-1 in league play) will share the league title with Missouri State and Saturday's South Dakota State-North Dakota State winner.
https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/1 ... 3162022916

I would think this means that an SDSU win on Saturday would give them the AQ, but not totally sure at all.
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

Post by MGB01 »

Not really sure how 4-1 UND would share with 5-1 SDSU or 6-1 NDSU either (or 5-1 Missouri State for that matter), they trying to do them a solid, or prep for UND maybe hosting EWU in the Bill Chaves Bowl in the first round from the bracketology?
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

Post by MGB01 »

This is interesting

https://fbschedules.com/st-thomas-to-pl ... h-in-2021/

St. Thomas is a private school in Minnesota who's making the jump all the way up from D3 and will join the Pioneer League, joining Minnesota as just the second D1 school in MN. The Tommies will play D2 Michigan Tech in their second game, creating the true rarity of a D1 school traveling to a D2 school.
Tank55
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

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St. Thomas is the school that got kicked out of their conference for being too good?
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

Post by MGB01 »

Tank55 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:19 pm St. Thomas is the school that got kicked out of their conference for being too good?
Yeah, and now they join the league with the team that's won 41 of 42 conference games (San Diego), that oughta be fun
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

Post by Tank55 »

Big news from the Pioneer Football League with Davidson in the hunt for its first FCS playoff bid:

Stetson at Davidson won't be played Saturday due to COVID-19 issues within Stetson’s Tier I personnel.
https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/1 ... 8115594241

Man, this is brutal. So if San Diego wins, I'd think they get the AQ. Davidson finally slays the beast but it might not be enough. Can't imagine they would get in as an at large.
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

Post by MGB01 »

That's good news for a regional 8 and 8 bracket, not so much anywhere else

It is brutal though, same deal had Weber, say not had the hail mary against NAU, and needed this week to clinch a share of the Big Sky and CP (who closed up shop after Eastern obliterated them) pulled out at the less than 48 hour mark.

If North Dakota can be named co-champs of the Valley despite potentially finishing two off of North Dakota State in the win column (and losing to them) the PFL almost has to do the same for Davidson (who had the second biggest upset of the season), and if teams are getting docked for/benefiting from games they played in September/October, see Missouri State, then it won't hurt for the NCAA to give Davidson favored nation status.

OTOH you can also make the argument that Davidson going on and losing to Presbyterian (who USD beat) was effectively their Notre Dame beating Florida State then losing to BC if somehow they don't get the AQ or one of the six at-larges. Also not helping them is that the PFL isn't normally a two-bid league (although this is hardly normal).

We'll see what happens, if Valpo and Morehead, who now have no path to the PFL auto bid, both suddenly drop out we're right back to square one.
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Re: Spring 2021 FCS: Scouting for the next Donald Parham

Post by Tank55 »

Pioneer announces that Davidson will get the AQ:

http://www.pioneer-football.org/news/ar ... matic-bid/

Tough break for San Diego.
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