TSL gets TV deal - but XFL can't? Wow!

[4th&long]

Yes, it's about the money. The expectation is that conditions will be more economically favorable in 2021. It's pretty weird that you take such offense to that.

It definitely comes across like you have an axe to grind with the new ownership that goes beyond the not at all unreasonable business decision to not play in 2021. I don't know if it's political or cultural or what, but it's getting really tiresome.

There is nothing in my post directed personally at the new ownership group - why would I??

No this is just a major disappointment and set back for a league announced in Jan 2018 to go 4 years with 5 weeks played.

This is about stalling to get more investors involved IMO and that's not happening ESPECIALLY if the suspend for 2021. If not willing to put own skin in game they shouldn't have purchased. i gave a low cost, workable, scaled down season idea in post above and the XFL had something similar prime to auction.

Under that logic, NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL should not be playing Fall of 2020 thru Dec 2021. Is that realistic ? No They will be playing.

OK.

Let's first tackle the investors thing. You've mentioned this in a few posts, and I realize you're couching it as your opinion, but let's also point out there is zero evidence to support this theory. The ownership group had plenty of time to look over the books of the XFL. It would be lunacy for them to buy something like the XFL then AFTER the purchase decide they need more money to run it, no matter how much they initially put in. You don't get to be as successful as these folks by throwing money away like that. I feel like some are shocked by this and wanting to attribute malice to this idea, but waiting until 2022 was a realistic option from the outset of the purchase (discussed and written about by many), even if it's unsatisfying for a lot of fans.

Secondly, the bubble. Yes, the XFL had a bubble plan to deal with the pandemic. We don't know all the details of it but we know it was part of the IP purchased in the bankruptcy. However, the key you seem to be missing is the bubble plan was created with the idea XFL 2.0 would still be running - that is, TV contracts, sponsorships, players, coaches, executives, all the infrastructure would still be there. They're not. And those things don't just reappear overnight. That's also a point that has been brought up by folks in responses to your posts that I haven't seen you address (and apologies if I missed it). I'd be curious your thoughts on it. The point I made in another thread is even if the new ownership group wanted desperately to give it a go in 2021, there may have been outside forces (contracts to be negotiated, wait time on sponsorships, leases, COVID testing details, TV deals, etc.) that wouldn't allow them to move forward as they'd like to have done.

I also hope you can clarify your last point in the quoted post above - because it sounds like you're comparing the XFL's situation (and perhaps ability to play amidst the pandemic?) of new ownership and having to build teams and staffs back from the ground up, with already established billion-dollar major sports leagues with infrastructures and TV contracts the XFL is lacking. But that can't be right.

1st - yes IMO they are no prepared to drop coin. Evidence #1 - they have publicly committed NO MONEY. That was what Charlie Ebersol Lied about in the AAF and what VM committed to on the XFL return announcement. It's the foundation of credibility in a new league and its why they won't be taken seriously by Nets. Evidence #2 - No 2021 season. Even at a dramatically scaled down version. With ex-staff and players still avail and Fox open to a TV deal they passed. That means prepard ready to spend. Evidence #3 - They individually have committed little funds into the XFL - $5 Million each.

2nd - The bubble plan was NOT assuming the TV deals would be in place as before - that was Never stated. The Bubble plan was a way to play in the pandemic. With game 1 almost 5 months away and covid slow and flattened and people and business moving forward with or without it - a scaled down Hybrid bubble (with fans in seats in Houston and Dallas) was clearly a low cost, yet huge Positive PR move. Many of the Execs ARE avail looking for work but won't in 2022. This would be a huge cost savings, but was passed on. Also the TV deal with Fox was OPEN for XFL continuation, though possible alteration. No matter what XFL WAS not getting paid for it for 3 yrs so that would not work for new owners anyway. YET TSL gets a spring TV contract.

3rd - To clarify my last statement - the point being some feel COVID was the driver to kick can to 2022 because sports would not allow attendance. To Repeat my point: Under that logic, NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL should not be playing Fall of 2020 thru Dec 2021. Is that realistic ? No They will be playing -....... With covid or not.

[GregParks]

1st - yes IMO they are no prepared to drop coin. Evidence #1 - they have publicly committed NO MONEY. That was what Charlie Ebersol Lied about in the AAF and what VM committed to on the XFL return announcement. It's the foundation of credibility in a new league and its why they won't be taken seriously by Nets.

Just because they haven't made any financial proclamations publicly doesn't mean they haven't had internal discussions or decisions about that, perhaps even ones they'd share with networks during negotiations.

Evidence #2 - No 2021 season. Even at a dramatically scaled down version. With ex-staff and players still avail and Fox open to a TV deal they passed. That means prepard ready to spend.

I read into this more that they're not going to throw money away with little to gain (even if some fans are allowed in stands, they perhaps won't make enough on ticket sales to be worth it). I think we simply disagree on how important a 2021 season is in terms of optics.

Evidence #3 - They individually have committed little funds into the XFL - $5 Million each.

That was for the purchase of the league through bankruptcy. We have no evidence they aren't committing more to actually run the league. They would obviously have to, though we don't know how it will be divided amongst the three. I would assume RedBird Capital would bear the load. But again, we disagree on what the lack of transparency (and it IS still early) actually means.

2nd - The bubble plan was NOT assuming the TV deals would be in place as before - that was Never stated.

Huh? Why would it have to be stated? The bubble plan was created BEFORE the league declared bankruptcy - and with the TV deals thus still active.

The Bubble plan was a way to play in the pandemic. With game 1 almost 5 months away and covid slow and flattened and people and business moving forward with or without it - a scaled down Hybrid bubble (with fans in seats in Houston and Dallas) was clearly a low cost, yet huge Positive PR move. Many of the Execs ARE avail looking for work but won't in 2022. This would be a huge cost savings, but was passed on. Also the TV deal with Fox was OPEN for XFL continuation, though possible alteration. No matter what XFL WAS not getting paid for it for 3 yrs so that would not work for new owners anyway. YET TSL gets a spring TV contract.

Couple things here - I do agree it would be positive PR for the league to play in 2021. Perhaps to them, even a scaled-down season wouldn't be worth the cost, etc. Again, leases, testing details, this stuff takes time to put together. They would've had to commit early about playing in 2021 to get players, coaches, etc. ready - what if they did that but couldn't get things behind-the-scenes to fall into place in time? They'd have major egg on their face. I just think there were too many questions to make it a slam-dunk decision.

As for the execs looking for work, they could really be hired any time - I know the timeline given was June 2021, but hopefully the league is reaching out to those former employees in the meantime to let them know they're interested in working with them again. Even while FOX stated they'd be willing to work with new owners, they still objected to their deal being a part of the bankruptcy sale. Again, I'm not sure we've heard a decision on that so if it's still tied up in the courts, it would be difficult to move forward. TSL got a contract because FOX bought in to the league (at a much lower cost probably than it would be to buy into the XFL). The status of the FOX (and ESPN) TV contracts in bankruptcy court is the key.

3rd - To clarify my last statement - the point being some feel COVID was the driver to kick can to 2022 because sports would not allow attendance. To Repeat my point: Under that logic, NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL should not be playing Fall of 2020 thru Dec 2021. Is that realistic ? No They will be playing -....... With covid or not.

And that was not my contention to why the league is waiting until 2022, though it may probably played a part. But the other leagues you mentioned could better absorb losses of having no fans in the stands because of their gigantic TV contracts and billion-dollar infrastructures; the XFL, under new ownership and a time crunch to get things moving, simply wouldn't be able to take that risk. It seems to me there's a pretty clear distinction between the two groups.

[Tank55]

Under that logic, NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL should not be playing Fall of 2020 thru Dec 2021.

Those are established, profitable leagues with paying television contracts and CBAs. You're comparing apples and oranges. This is a startup. Their calculus needs to be different.

How can someone so educated about startup football think the margin of error is so high? You cant just piss away millions running UFL style half seasons and expect to survive.

[4th&long]

Under that logic, NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL should not be playing Fall of 2020 thru Dec 2021.

Those are established, profitable leagues with paying television contracts and CBAs. You're comparing apples and oranges. This is a startup. Their calculus needs to be different.

How can someone so educated about startup football think the margin of error is so high? You cant just piss away millions running UFL style half seasons and expect to survive.

VM was prepared to 'piss away' $300mm over 3 yrs.... but XFL 3.0 isn't? Is that your point? OK then scale down. They did neither, telling me they are looking for outside money which all dead end leagues do.

My point is I'm educated enough to know that no XFL in 2021 means all momentum is LOST. I'm also aware enough that I'm hearing NO capital commitment at all, which is likely why the news of 2022 got little love on social media.

I also know NBA and NHL (especially) are going to be more dependent on gate than other leagues. XFL was already receiving no TV rev for 2020-22 so gate was all they had sans infield / off field ads on camera. This is why they could have done a hybrid bubble season in Dallas and Houston and gotten at least a sizable gate while reducing the number of games 70%. This would have satiated the fan appetite, showed proof of commitment and ability to get it done.
NHL and NBA also can not have another season without fans, and I don't see that happening. They will play with fans.

As far as the UFL Mike Huygue was a freaking disaster, we agree that he DID piss money away.

[MGB01]

As far as the UFL Mike Huygue was a freaking disaster, we agree that he DID piss money away.

Reminds me of time I snuck into an open chat with him a couple weeks before the season and I asked him whether they did the schedule with Michael Vick in mind. One of those was a Saturday night with like three or four big college games (including Florida/LSU on CBS), another one was later in the year on a Thursday night in SF with TNF down the road at the Stick. He gave the standard mealy-mouth non-answer.

If you're going to piss money away, at least do it big and not only outbid the Eagles for Vick, and give me something a little better than Versus and HDNet. Hell if you go big enough you might be able to con the sheep into thinking that you were this next big thing that the pre-orangeman ruined.

[Tank55]

VM was prepared to 'piss away' $300mm over 3 yrs.... but XFL 3.0 isn't?

We know what Vince was prepared to spend in a world without COVID. We don't live in that world anymore. I think assuming that Vince would be playing in Spring 2021 is a huge reach.

And yes, it's VERY reasonable to assume that the new ownership is less willing or able to burn through cash. That's MORE of a reason to be judicial in your decision making.

no XFL in 2021 means all momentum is LOST.

Fine. But the momentum has a value, and what you're proposing has a cost. You've offered nothing to justify that the value outweighs the cost. If you're going to spew all this nonsense, at least show some work. How much in dollars is the current "momentum" worth? How much would your scaled down season cost? (Surely you don't think it would break even.) Is that an efficient way to run what's effectively an advertising campaign for Spring 2022?

As far as the UFL Mike Huygue was a freaking disaster, we agree that he DID piss money away.

Then stop suggesting things out of the UFL playbook.

[4th&long]

As far as the UFL Mike Huygue was a freaking disaster, we agree that he DID piss money away.

Reminds me of time I snuck into an open chat with him a couple weeks before the season and I asked him whether they did the schedule with Michael Vick in mind. One of those was a Saturday night with like three or four big college games (including Florida/LSU on CBS), another one was later in the year on a Thursday night in SF with TNF down the road at the Stick. He gave the standard mealy-mouth non-answer.

If you're going to piss money away, at least do it big and not only outbid the Eagles for Vick, and give me something a little better than Versus and HDNet. Hell if you go big enough you might be able to con the sheep into thinking that you were this next big thing that the pre-orangeman ruined.

The great Recession was a big big issue - much worse than Covid IMO which was addressed well economically. The GR was a financial disaster and while they poured money into the UFL I think a delay of 2 years would have helped. Likely not enough but helped.

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

no XFL in 2021 means all momentum is LOST.

Fine. But the momentum has a value, and what you're proposing has a cost. You've offered nothing to justify that the value outweighs the cost. If you're going to spew all this nonsense, at least show some work. How much in dollars is the current "momentum" worth? How much would your scaled down season cost? (Surely you don't think it would break even.) Is that an efficient way to run what's effectively an advertising campaign for Spring 2022?

I'd further argue that momentum was already gone the moment the XFL decided not to finish their season. COVID killed ALL the momentum. There is none.

[4th&long]

no XFL in 2021 means all momentum is LOST.

Fine. But the momentum has a value, and what you're proposing has a cost. You've offered nothing to justify that the value outweighs the cost. If you're going to spew all this nonsense, at least show some work. How much in dollars is the current "momentum" worth? How much would your scaled down season cost? (Surely you don't think it would break even.) Is that an efficient way to run what's effectively an advertising campaign for Spring 2022?

I'd further argue that momentum was already gone the moment the XFL decided not to finish their season. COVID killed ALL the momentum. There is none.

I totally diagree with that.

[laxtreme56]

I also think this whole "momentum" argument is overrated. The leagues highest rated game in week 5 drew 1.5 million viewers in a country of 330 million. Literally 99%+ of the population couldn't care less and have already forgotten about the league. As I stated before, several of my friends thoroughly enjoyed the XFL, and I brought nearly 20 individuals to both Guardians games. Yet only 2, maybe 3 have even inquired about the future of the league to me. They have much more important things to think about than the future of minor league spring football.

They'll come back bigger and better in 2022, let the stench of Vince McMahon wear off and let Redbird and company give spring football a fighting chance.