XFL: When, what, if? Is the next step?

XFL Football discussion.
4th&long
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Re: XFL: When, what, if? Is the next step?

Post by 4th&long » Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:54 am

johnnyangryfuzzball wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:07 pm
Sounder wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:04 pm
Are they starting from scratch? Is the basic structure that Vince McMahon put in place still there for Rock to work from? Or is this gonna be a complete new startup again?
As I understand it, the personnel (except a few executives, namely Basil DeVito and Jeffrey Pollack) are mostly gone, but the basic structure is still there. But most of those personnel are also still available for hire right now and they may end up coming back.

So you won't have to deal with the months of testing, analyzing, and prep work that the league did to get the first season started—you have a rulebook, you have an ownership structure, you have stadium agreements and team names, and you still have the Fox half of the TV deal, for now. It basically comes down to hiring and re-hiring at this point.
Do they have the FOX deal? They need a new deal that pays.

4th&long
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Re: XFL: When, what, if? Is the next step?

Post by 4th&long » Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:13 am

My concern for the XFL 3.0 is they will not have the deep pockets and commitment that VM had.

If not I hope the league makes necessary cost cuts and revenue generation changes that ensures a full season.

I'd rather see a shortened season, smaller league, smaller roster size, less expensive commissioner etc... and a successful TV season that builds on 2020, then an all or nothing / failed 2021. If they do that and ratings only take a slight hit (or even improve) - they can ramp back up in 2022 and get a much better paying contract.

OL's strategy was bold and brilliant. By having ABC/ESPN&2 and Fox/FS1 for three years he was betting on massive sports coverage by the juggernaut and the #2 to make them legit. At that point a mult year large TV deal in the $200-450 million yrly range was the goal and likely would happen if all went even close to plan. And the first 5 games were delivering.
- The issue was he spent all VM's $100mm/yr to get there (though with rev gen that was less); and when shit hit fan there was no fall back
- But now they have to 'right size' in a new economy, with sports media taking a huge hit from politicizing. ESPN ratings have taken a hit, the allure for a give away to them may not be as strong (at least in near term).

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Re: XFL: When, what, if? Is the next step?

Post by johnnyangryfuzzball » Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:28 pm

4th&long wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:13 am
My concern for the XFL 3.0 is they will not have the deep pockets and commitment that VM had.

If not I hope the league makes necessary cost cuts and revenue generation changes that ensures a full season.

I'd rather see a shortened season, smaller league, smaller roster size, less expensive commissioner etc... and a successful TV season that builds on 2020, then an all or nothing / failed 2021. If they do that and ratings only take a slight hit (or even improve) - they can ramp back up in 2022 and get a much better paying contract.

OL's strategy was bold and brilliant. By having ABC/ESPN&2 and Fox/FS1 for three years he was betting on massive sports coverage by the juggernaut and the #2 to make them legit. At that point a mult year large TV deal in the $200-450 million yrly range was the goal and likely would happen if all went even close to plan. And the first 5 games were delivering.
- The issue was he spent all VM's $100mm/yr to get there (though with rev gen that was less); and when shit hit fan there was no fall back
- But now they have to 'right size' in a new economy, with sports media taking a huge hit from politicizing. ESPN ratings have taken a hit, the allure for a give away to them may not be as strong (at least in near term).
I think that is absolutely a legitimate concern. That's what killed the AAF, of course, along with countless other football leagues.

The good news is that McMahon covered most of the startup costs, and running costs compared to, for example, the AAF have been surprisingly manageable. Do Cardinale, Johnson and Garcia have the tens of millions of spare cash needed to keep the league afloat? The bankruptcy courts seem to think the business plan was viable enough to allow the sale.

I'm not as pessimistic as, for example, Greg Parks—I don't think that the shortened season last year can be pinned on anything except the coronavirus and government's response to it, something totally out of everyone's control including much larger and more established leagues—but I am realistic enough to recognize that the league faces some serious challenges going forward, money of course being first and foremost.

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Re: XFL: When, what, if? Is the next step?

Post by GregParks » Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:22 pm

johnnyangryfuzzball wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:28 pm

I'm not as pessimistic as, for example, Greg Parks—I don't think that the shortened season last year can be pinned on anything except the coronavirus and government's response to it, something totally out of everyone's control including much larger and more established leagues—but I am realistic enough to recognize that the league faces some serious challenges going forward, money of course being first and foremost.
Just to clear something up: Obviously the pandemic led to the shortened season. The point I was trying to make in another thread was that I was surprised Vince didn't try any kind of alternate solutions (such as furloughing employees, which we saw done elsewhere) before completely shutting down the league - though I suppose the bankruptcy itself could've been a way for Vince to simply put the league on hold with the hopes of buying it back and restarting it.

That said, whatever I think about the pandemic and its effects on the XFL 2.0 have nothing to do with my concerns about the potential success of XFL 3.0 As you mentioned, the amount of money the new group is willing to put into it is the big thing, with the ability to get a paying TV deal the other big question mark for me.
@gregmparks

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