Doom and gloomers out in full force

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StoneSentry
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by StoneSentry »

ozzies09tc wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:02 pm See I'm not sure how the XFL is perceived outside of St Louis (minus you all) but in StL it is HUGE. Non-football fans watched a game with me, and said it was entertaining.

They liked the rule changes and the facts that the players are treated like people (allowed to drink beer on tv) and not like robots.

They like if you beat your wife/kid you are banned from the league (and joked they'd then get an nfl contract for millions)

They loved the kickoffs. They loved hearing the stl crowd scream "BOOM" everytime marquette king punted.

But mostly, the 4 guys I watched with that are non-football fans all said the same thing. They were entertained. It wasn't slow like the nfl where its one play, 4 commercials, one play, 4 commercials, rinse and repeat.

These naysayers in the OP can eat a dick.
You said it. The XFL has everything it takes to stick around: money, national exposure, teams with distinct identities, and an entertaining product. I have faith in their plan and the people in charge. A few years from now when the league is still alive and flourishing, those same people who were waiting for it to fail will turn around and say they always knew McMahon and Luck would succeed.
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Joker
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by Joker »

Hate the doom and gloom news stories. It’s easy to recognize them for what they are and that is desperate attempts to get website hits. I ignore them.
Fan of the XFL from the beginning. You may remember me from the original XFLboard.
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Regular Joe
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by Regular Joe »

Ratings wise it's exactly where they said they had to be with all networks. They get better ratings then NHL games, and are on par with ratings for other sports. And this is the start of building a fan base. They're happy at the networks and in the league office.
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Metallifreak10
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by Metallifreak10 »

Well, I think week 5 is the week I feel will be the stabilizing week ratings wise. I always felt week 1 to week 2 would see a 25% drop(it was around 30%) I figured we’d see a 15% drop into week 3, and 5-10% into week 4.

So, I think and hope the ratings on free tv hold at 1.7 million, and I think there will be a slight bump in the cable ratings this week to 1.2 million from 1.1 million since there will be a game on ESPN this week versus ESPN 2.

I think that the normal ratings will be 1.6 million on ABC going forward, and 1.8 million on FOX. 1.3 million on ESPN, 1 million on FS1. ESPN 2 will be 1 million, and FS2 next week will be lucky to see 600k. I do expect a 5% drop for week 6 against NCAA conference tournaments, and week 7 a 10% drop against the round of 32. But, I expect those ratings to rebound.

The question is this, let’s assume the XFL continues with a 1.5 million+ free tv average, and 1 million+ cable average for the years to come. How much money would they be able to get with a paying tv contract? Let’s assume they expand to 10 teams, so 53 games overall. I’d think an absolute minimum of $100 million per year to have even a chance at turning a profit. What does everyone else think?
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by 4th&long »

Metallifreak10 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:54 pm Well, I think week 5 is the week I feel will be the stabilizing week ratings wise. I always felt week 1 to week 2 would see a 25% drop(it was around 30%) I figured we’d see a 15% drop into week 3, and 5-10% into week 4.

So, I think and hope the ratings on free tv hold at 1.7 million, and I think there will be a slight bump in the cable ratings this week to 1.2 million from 1.1 million since there will be a game on ESPN this week versus ESPN 2.

I think that the normal ratings will be 1.6 million on ABC going forward, and 1.8 million on FOX. 1.3 million on ESPN, 1 million on FS1. ESPN 2 will be 1 million, and FS2 next week will be lucky to see 600k. I do expect a 5% drop for week 6 against NCAA conference tournaments, and week 7 a 10% drop against the round of 32. But, I expect those ratings to rebound.

The question is this, let’s assume the XFL continues with a 1.5 million+ free tv average, and 1 million+ cable average for the years to come. How much money would they be able to get with a paying tv contract? Let’s assume they expand to 10 teams, so 53 games overall. I’d think an absolute minimum of $100 million per year to have even a chance at turning a profit. What does everyone else think?
I think those #'s for ABC/Fox/ESPN/ESPN2/FS1-2 make sense. Assuming they do NOT expand I can see them getting $150-225mm a year for 43 games. Its still pocket change. MLS gets $80-90mm for weak cable and overall TV ratings. That mat stipulate paying more for a few name players (nothing crazy) to help promote.

Here is some perspective:

https://www.sltrib.com/artsliving/2019/ ... -secs-big/

>>CBS announced it dropped out of negotiations to renew its SEC football package, which ends after the 2023 season. CBS currently pays $55 million a year; it offered $300 million a year; ESPN/ABC reportedly offered $330 million, and is expected to announce a deal shortly.

That would be an additional $275 million a year to the league. Divided by 14, that would be another $19.6 million per SEC team. And that’s for just 15 games a year, giving ESPN/ABC its pick of the best game each week.<<

And here are some ratings to go with that:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/colleg ... v-ratings/

Now CBS may get 15 games with 5mm viewers say 75mm total vs XFL 1.5mm x 43 games or 65mm; but this does provide some reference

And CBS may jump in after losing the SEC - they certainly cover it on their web site.
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by Tank55 »

I think Week 7 is probably/hopefully the bottom with the first round of the NCAA tournament.
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MGB01
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by MGB01 »

Tank55 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:40 pm I think Week 7 is probably/hopefully the bottom with the first round of the NCAA tournament.
As I said in another thread, depends on what the matchups are. Using last year as a guide, this is what the XFL would go against--w overlap included

3/21 2:00 Dallas/Tampa Bay (ABC), end of LSU/Maryland-Kentucky/Wofford (CBS)
3/21 5:00 Los Angeles/St. Louis (FOX), Michigan/Florida-Michigan St/Minnesota (CBS)-Florida St/Murray St (TNT)-Gonzaga/Baylor (TBS)

3/22 3:00 New York/Seattle (ABC), Washington/UNC-UCF/Duke (CBS)
3/22 6:00 DC/Houston (FS1), Texas Tech/Buffalo-Houston/Ohio St (TNT), Virginia Tech/Liberty (TBS), Virginia/Oklahoma (TruTV)

This year you can pretty much mark down the big boys of the group (Kentucky, Michigan State, and Duke--throw in Kansas who was a 9:30 start vs Auburn on Saturday and outside the windows) are gonna be on opposite the XFL, because while it's March Madness, not every matchup is the equivalent of NFL playoff must-see TV--think Va Tech/Liberty here (still not sure how UVA/OU, featuring two power conference teams and the eventual national champion, was banished to truTV but that's another discussion).

So as many of the top eight draws as possible will get the first two CBS windows (and since I'm headed to Spokane for the first two rounds there that effects the draw we get since an 11:30 local start is unlikely), the others won't really matter since it's essentially the old four-way split coverage only on different nets so the league should be safer there, especially with a rockin Dome crowd Saturday and the PJW show on the other.
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XFLGUY
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by XFLGUY »

As expected more of the same..


Five changes the XFL must make to save itself from collapse

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sportsnaut ... lapse/amp/

In summary..

1. Keep P.J. Walker at all costs
2. Embrace relocation, not expansion
3. Overhaul the coaching staffs with young, innovative minds
4. Embrace college stars looking to get paid
5. Crank up the ‘wow’ factor with more trick plays, drama, rivalries
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by MGB01 »

XFLGUY wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:00 pm As expected more of the same..


Five changes the XFL must make to save itself from collapse

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sportsnaut ... lapse/amp/

In summary..

1. Keep P.J. Walker at all costs
2. Embrace relocation, not expansion
3. Overhaul the coaching staffs with young, innovative minds
4. Embrace college stars looking to get paid
5. Crank up the ‘wow’ factor with more trick plays, drama, rivalries
Sounds like he did some level of homework here (not much) but at least there's some detail

1 is a non starter. Even in the USFL you had guys wondering why players weren't in the NFL, example Earle Bruce about his former all Big 10 LB Marcus Marek. Besides either PJW could end up back in the X next year or there's gonna be the next guy

3 I don't know what the hell he's watching. Sure Trestman and Gilbride are meh, and Zorn is there for local ties, but the problem elsewhere is? Hamilton was a finalist at Maryland before Locksley got the job, Moss and Hayes have had some bumps in the road but they're fine, and why anyone would go after Stoops or Jones (especially where you're putting PJW over) makes me ask exactly where you expect that be taken seriously

2 and 4 I've been with, although he seems to step all over 2 with 5.

So I'll give him points for not the usual XFLISTEHTRASHLOLZ!!!!!!!!!!1111111 that seems to be most critiques, a few though
4th&long
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Re: Doom and gloomers out in full force

Post by 4th&long »

XFLGUY wrote: Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:00 pm As expected more of the same..


Five changes the XFL must make to save itself from collapse

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sportsnaut ... lapse/amp/

In summary..

1. Keep P.J. Walker at all costs
2. Embrace relocation, not expansion
3. Overhaul the coaching staffs with young, innovative minds
4. Embrace college stars looking to get paid
5. Crank up the ‘wow’ factor with more trick plays, drama, rivalries
There's enough anti-XFL news media without digging up some basement dwelling website.... DNB do not bother .... with this never ran.
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