I didn't realize NFL TD returns were so rare even compared to actual returns

[Rangersking669]

This article says only 1.5 kick returns occurred per game(actual returns, no touchback or fair catch), and there are 256 games in the regular season, so that is 384 total if you take that out to the full regular szn and not just through 10/23, which is reasonable I think. Yet, only 7 kicks were returned for TD's. That is a KO TD rate of 1.82%, and that appears to be on the high end for the nfl over the past couple years. I'm glad the XFL won't make it quite so rare, but they still won't happen too often, maybe 15% at most over a whole season, and let's say about 5 kicks being returned a game(NFL average was 4 before rules changes) that would mean 3/wk on average(for 8 team league) for a high rate of TD's and probably not the typical rate for a normal season. Do people like that TD's are so incredibly rare in NFL even on actual returns? I feel like it should occur about 10% of the time(2/wk for current xfl). Makes it much more fun.

[Andibald]

This article says only 1.5 kick returns occurred per game(actual returns, no touchback or fair catch), and there are 256 games in the regular season, so that is 384 total if you take that out to the full regular szn and not just through 10/23, which is reasonable I think. Yet, only 7 kicks were returned for TD's. That is a KO TD rate of 1.82%, and that appears to be on the high end for the nfl over the past couple years. I'm glad the XFL won't make it quite so rare, but they still won't happen too often, maybe 15% at most over a whole season, and let's say about 5 kicks being returned a game(NFL average was 4 before rules changes) that would mean 3/wk on average(for 8 team league) for a high rate of TD's and probably not the typical rate for a normal season. Do people like that TD's are so incredibly rare in NFL even on actual returns? I feel like it should occur about 10% of the time(2/wk for current xfl). Makes it much more fun.

Interesting stuff. With the rules re touch backs, out of bounds and short kicks, I expect most of the kicks to be returned making the number of returns closer to 8 or 10 per game. That assumes just 3 or 4 scores for each team to go along with the kick to start each half. There may be more scoring and possibly a couple bad kicks but I think 5 returns is a low estimate.

Also, with the alignment rules, it remains to be seen which side will benefit the most. I am leaning towards the kicking team in the long run. One of the reasons for a big return on a normal KO is players getting out of their lane. With this alignment, players will be in their lane at the 35yd line. They will also be less likely to overrun the play and will not have just run 50 yards before breaking down to take on a block or make the tackle. That said, with the alignment resembling rugby but without any deep players (sorry kickers ), there could be more line breaks which would lead to bigger returns, especially early in the season.

It will also be interesting to see the type of players used on each side. Not having to run 50 yds may bring in some bigger guys on both sides.

I expect the TDs from KO's to still be pretty rare but since more KO's will be returned, we may see a few more TD's. I will predict less than 1 per week on average.

[Andibald]

This article says only 1.5 kick returns occurred per game(actual returns, no touchback or fair catch), and there are 256 games in the regular season, so that is 384 total if you take that out to the full regular szn and not just through 10/23, which is reasonable I think. Yet, only 7 kicks were returned for TD's. That is a KO TD rate of 1.82%, and that appears to be on the high end for the nfl over the past couple years. I'm glad the XFL won't make it quite so rare, but they still won't happen too often, maybe 15% at most over a whole season, and let's say about 5 kicks being returned a game(NFL average was 4 before rules changes) that would mean 3/wk on average(for 8 team league) for a high rate of TD's and probably not the typical rate for a normal season. Do people like that TD's are so incredibly rare in NFL even on actual returns? I feel like it should occur about 10% of the time(2/wk for current xfl). Makes it much more fun.

The first reverse we see on a KO could be big. With only one returner deep, a reverse to a guy on the line may catch the KO team flowing the wrong way.

[LeoNY]

I like how the XFL is making sure that the kick return happens. I don’t know how many big returns we are going to see. The point is safety and the returns actually happening.

[MGB01]

Was there one in the playoffs? Mecole Hardman came close but that's the only one I can think of.