Playoff Wk - TV Ratings and Predictions

The USFL has hit the field. Discuss it here!
4th&long
MVP
Posts: 6475
Joined: Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:27 pm

Re: Playoff Wk - TV Ratings and Predictions

Post by 4th&long »

MGB01 wrote: Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:15 pm PHI/NJ went first in week 10 then first in Canton, you explain it then.

My prediction would have solved every angle and probably delivered around 1.4 mil. So instead of fretting about Stars/Stallions against a Phillies team a couple games over .500, call them out for totally cowering to a potential Game 7.
I did explain it - NBC likely had choice of time slot and Fox choice of game. Also FOX likely didn't want NJ/Philly going up against its FOX Saturday MLB game. But its the wrong move for the USFL.
MGB01
MVP
Posts: 3314
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:42 pm

Re: Playoff Wk - TV Ratings and Predictions

Post by MGB01 »

4th&long wrote: Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:46 pm
MGB01 wrote: Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:15 pm PHI/NJ went first in week 10 then first in Canton, you explain it then.

My prediction would have solved every angle and probably delivered around 1.4 mil. So instead of fretting about Stars/Stallions against a Phillies team a couple games over .500, call them out for totally cowering to a potential Game 7.
I did explain it - NBC likely had choice of time slot and Fox choice of game. Also FOX likely didn't want NJ/Philly going up against its FOX Saturday MLB game. But its the wrong move for the USFL.
Um, we're not in disagreement here
4th&long
MVP
Posts: 6475
Joined: Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:27 pm

Re: Playoff Wk - TV Ratings and Predictions

Post by 4th&long »

4th&long wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:22 am Ok here goes...

Saturday - FOX 3pm NJ/Philly in Canton - 1mm
The 2 biggest markets but on a great weather day, I think this game would be much higher at night but that's not to be. Great weather in Philly/NJ/NY - maybe a little hot? but sub 90. If heat fatigue and a good game - maybe better ratings

Saturday - NBC 8pm NOLA/Birm in Canton - 1.2mm
HOT weather in South... that may help. Also primetime.

Hopefully better but that's my prediction.
And the actuals are in:

https://showbuzzdaily.com/articles/sked ... -2022.html

Saturday - FOX 3pm NJ/Philly in Canton - Prediction 1mm, actual 957k - got this pretty close off 4.3%. USFL lost maybe 500k viewers net putting this game on during the day vs letting NBC have it.

Saturday - NBC 8pm NOLA/Birm in Canton - Prediction 1.2mm, actual 998k - Despite the micro markets of NOLA vs BIRM still thought we'd get a couple hundred thousdan more on this one. This is a lesson to USFL, XFL 3.0 small(micro) markets = smaller ratings, XFL 2.0 understood this.

Havings said that they averaged 978k on a beautiful summer weekend day. Not great, but not bad.

YTD Broadcast 984k (with season opener counting as 2 games (23) - which I think is more conservative)
YTD Broadcast 1029k (with season opener counting as 1 games (22) - which many use in media)

Competition:
MLS - Seattle v KC - ABC at 3pm 427k (more than doubled by USFL)
MLS - DC vs Nashville - ESPN at 5pm 211k
US Track/Field on NBC at 4pm 1050k
MLB - Wash v Texas - FS1 at 4pm 211k (another two top 10 markets)
Nascar Xfinity on USA at 4pm 796k
PGA Travelers on CBS at 3pm 1949k
BIG3 - CBS at 1pm 496k

MLB - LA v Atlanta and regions - FOX at 7pm 1951k
CWS - ESPN at 7pm 1632k
Camping World Series - CBS at 8pm 982k

Other Comps:
Sunday:
MLS - LA vs NY at 3pm 460k (the two largest TV markets doubled by USFL)
MLB - SNB LA v Atlanta at 7pm 1728k
Last edited by 4th&long on Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
laxtreme56
Coach
Posts: 886
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:16 pm

Re: Playoff Wk - TV Ratings and Predictions

Post by laxtreme56 »

4th&long wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:34 am
4th&long wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:22 am Ok here goes...

Saturday - FOX 3pm NJ/Philly in Canton - 1mm
The 2 biggest markets but on a great weather day, I think this game would be much higher at night but that's not to be. Great weather in Philly/NJ/NY - maybe a little hot? but sub 90. If heat fatigue and a good game - maybe better ratings

Saturday - NBC 8pm NOLA/Birm in Canton - 1.2mm
HOT weather in South... that may help. Also primetime.

Hopefully better but that's my prediction.
And the actuals are in:

https://showbuzzdaily.com/articles/sked ... -2022.html

Saturday - FOX 3pm NJ/Philly in Canton - Prediction 1mm, actual 957k - got this pretty close off 4.3%. USFL lost maybe 500k viewers net putting this game on during the day vs letting NBC have it.

Saturday - NBC 8pm NOLA/Birm in Canton - Prediction 1.2mm, actual 998k - Despite the micro markets of NOLA vs BIRM still thought we'd get a couple hundred thousdan more on this one. This is a lesson to USFL, XFL 3.0 small(micro) markets = smaller ratings, XFL 2.0 understood this.

Havings said that they averaged 978k on a beautiful summer weekend day. Not great, but not bad.

YTD Broadcast 984k (with season opener counting as 2 games (23) - which I think is more conservative)
YTD Broadcast 1029k (with season opener counting as 1 games (22) - which many use in media)
Not sure Philly-NJ would've added 500k more viewers in primetime. The ratings in NY/NJ are miniscule at best and while Philly has potential, the vast majority of the city has no idea the USFL exists. Judging by Google trends, which usually lines up pretty well with ratings, Alabama, Louisiana, and Michigan all fall in the top 10 country wide in interest. Pennsylvania usually ranks around #15, with Florida, Texas and NJ ranked 30 or lower.
4th&long
MVP
Posts: 6475
Joined: Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:27 pm

Re: Playoff Wk - TV Ratings and Predictions

Post by 4th&long »

laxtreme56 wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:47 am
4th&long wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:34 am
4th&long wrote: Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:22 am Ok here goes...

Saturday - FOX 3pm NJ/Philly in Canton - 1mm
The 2 biggest markets but on a great weather day, I think this game would be much higher at night but that's not to be. Great weather in Philly/NJ/NY - maybe a little hot? but sub 90. If heat fatigue and a good game - maybe better ratings

Saturday - NBC 8pm NOLA/Birm in Canton - 1.2mm
HOT weather in South... that may help. Also primetime.

Hopefully better but that's my prediction.
And the actuals are in:

https://showbuzzdaily.com/articles/sked ... -2022.html

Saturday - FOX 3pm NJ/Philly in Canton - Prediction 1mm, actual 957k - got this pretty close off 4.3%. USFL lost maybe 500k viewers net putting this game on during the day vs letting NBC have it.

Saturday - NBC 8pm NOLA/Birm in Canton - Prediction 1.2mm, actual 998k - Despite the micro markets of NOLA vs BIRM still thought we'd get a couple hundred thousdan more on this one. This is a lesson to USFL, XFL 3.0 small(micro) markets = smaller ratings, XFL 2.0 understood this.

Havings said that they averaged 978k on a beautiful summer weekend day. Not great, but not bad.

YTD Broadcast 984k (with season opener counting as 2 games (23) - which I think is more conservative)
YTD Broadcast 1029k (with season opener counting as 1 games (22) - which many use in media)
Not sure Philly-NJ would've added 500k more viewers in primetime. The ratings in NY/NJ are miniscule at best and while Philly has potential, the vast majority of the city has no idea the USFL exists. Judging by Google trends, which usually lines up pretty well with ratings, Alabama, Louisiana, and Michigan all fall in the top 10 country wide in interest. Pennsylvania usually ranks around #15, with Florida, Texas and NJ ranked 30 or lower.
Perhaps - but with NBC promoting it they gotten a few hundred K more IMO. The strong daytime numbers on at 3pm against perfect weather along a beach laden area to boot says otherwise. But we'll never know.

I will say that based on that analysis of yours Philly will be the northern Hub unless they realllly can't make it work.
Post Reply