How much does AAF attendance matter?

[Joker]

In watching the AAF games I wonder how much it matters to have such low attendance in some markets. Has the AAF ever published a business plan that indicates what kind of attendance they would be expecting? Maybe low attendance was expected, and budgeted for?

[XtremeFanForever]

In watching the AAF games I wonder how much it matters to have such low attendance in some markets. Has the AAF ever published a business plan that indicates what kind of attendance they would be expecting? Maybe low attendance was expected, and budgeted for?

My guess would've been "not that much as long as they're making decent money on their TV deal" but it's now well known they're making nothing from TV, so... who knows? Ebersol has taked about how their technology (which I assume means apps and streaming) is going to be where the money is at but even that is a work in progress, so I'm really not sure.

[Joker]

I guess nobody knows whether they really need to make money. The business plan may be to burn money in the first year, with the thought that they begin to make money in the second year.

We will find out soon. With the low attendance, maybe Dundon will pull his investment. I hope not.

[XtremeFanForever]

Whatever their business plan is/was reports are Dundon is poised to rip it up now that he's running the show, so everything really does seem to be up in the air.

[MikeMitchell]

In watching the AAF games I wonder how much it matters to have such low attendance in some markets. Has the AAF ever published a business plan that indicates what kind of attendance they would be expecting? Maybe low attendance was expected, and budgeted for?

Who knows what matters to the AAF? Being able to pay the bills should matter at some point. You need revenue from somewhere to pay for things. Like your players, coaches and employees for starters. These leagues are started with the idea of actually making money.

From a visual standpoint. It never looks good when you have poor turnouts at your games and if there is no energy or enthusiasm for your product.

I know that Oliver Luck has earmarked a 20k average for the league for budgetary reasons. Luck feels that they can do better than that but 20k is the number.

If the financial model is for fantasy and gambling. Having your teams in legalized gambling states helps. That means that people locally will have more interest in your games. Interest equals revenue.

If this league is all about selling tech or getting the NFL owners to pay the bills. You have to show that you can make money.

[MarkNelson]

My guess is attendance will start to matter soon. They may have the money in place to fund the league at a loss, but they will eventually look at the attendance and make some important choices. Maybe move a franchise or two?

[AAF/XFL/Expert]

For the AAF to breakeven on its game player, coach, game official, stadium lease, administrative overhead and travel costs, it has to sell 30,000 tickets per game at an average purchase price of $30 per ticket. It also has to sell 2,000 Club Seats per game at an average profit after food costs of $100 or $125 per ticket. It will also have to sell at 20 Luxury Suites at an average cost per season of $10,000 each plus the cost of tickets and catering.

The AAF is losing about $600,000 per week on its television production. It is not selling a sufficient number of ads to even begin to cover production costs and the cost of television time it has to purchase.

IMO the AAF will lose about $100 Million its first season. To turn around attendance the AAF is going to have to bring in some entertainment to draw in an alternative fan that wants some more than football.

While they bragged about the 2.1 television rating on the CBS game in Week 1, please remember the XFL had a 10 rating when it launched in 2000. None of its regular season television distribution partners are rated, which means they have no "audited" basis on which to sell television advertising.

[Joker]

For the AAF to breakeven on its game player, coach, game official, stadium lease, administrative overhead and travel costs, it has to sell 30,000 tickets per game at an average purchase price of $30 ...

Wonderful analysis. This is exactly what I’m talking about! Clearly, without broadcast revenue, the AAF is bleeding cash... unless they can get their fan base to show up for games.

Hopefully the XFL can negotiate broadcast revenue to balance the books.

[XFL_FAN]

For the AAF to breakeven on its game player, coach, game official, stadium lease, administrative overhead and travel costs, it has to sell 30,000 tickets per game at an average purchase price of $30 ...

Wonderful analysis. This is exactly what I’m talking about! Clearly, without broadcast revenue, the AAF is bleeding cash... unless they can get their fan base to show up for games.

That's why the TV deal is so crucial for the XFL. We know it will probably be Fox and ESPN/ABC, but what are the details of the deal? While most people when the TV deal is released will be focusing on the networks the XFL got, I'll be focusing on how much money they'll be making from it.

For the AAF to breakeven on its game player, coach, game official, stadium lease, administrative overhead and travel costs, it has to sell 30,000 tickets per game at an average purchase price of $30 per ticket. It also has to sell 2,000 Club Seats per game at an average profit after food costs of $100 or $125 per ticket. It will also have to sell at 20 Luxury Suites at an average cost per season of $10,000 each plus the cost of tickets and catering.

The AAF is losing about $600,000 per week on its television production. It is not selling a sufficient number of ads to even begin to cover production costs and the cost of television time it has to purchase.

IMO the AAF will lose about $100 Million its first season. To turn around attendance the AAF is going to have to bring in some entertainment to draw in an alternative fan that wants some more than football.

While they bragged about the 2.1 television rating on the CBS game in Week 1, please remember the XFL had a 10 rating when it launched in 2000. None of its regular season television distribution partners are rated, which means they have no "audited" basis on which to sell television advertising.

Great analysis AAF/XFL/Expert!

[MikeMitchell]

For the AAF to breakeven on its game player, coach, game official, stadium lease, administrative overhead and travel costs, it has to sell 30,000 tickets per game at an average purchase price of $30 per ticket. It also has to sell 2,000 Club Seats per game at an average profit after food costs of $100 or $125 per ticket. It will also have to sell at 20 Luxury Suites at an average cost per season of $10,000 each plus the cost of tickets and catering.

The AAF is losing about $600,000 per week on its television production. It is not selling a sufficient number of ads to even begin to cover production costs and the cost of television time it has to purchase.

IMO the AAF will lose about $100 Million its first season. To turn around attendance the AAF is going to have to bring in some entertainment to draw in an alternative fan that wants some more than football.

While they bragged about the 2.1 television rating on the CBS game in Week 1, please remember the XFL had a 10 rating when it launched in 2000. None of its regular season television distribution partners are rated, which means they have no "audited" basis on which to sell television advertising.

Great analysis. Nothing really to dispute here. This is a crucial period coming up for the AAF. The middle of their season approaching, March Madness and then the push to their playoffs. The championship game on CBS will be key. It will be key in measuring where the league is, and is heading.

All startups go through hiccups and some rough patches, but I have not been impressed with the league’s financial model or execution in running the league.